In Exercises 65 to 72, find the center and radius of the graph of the circle. The equations of the circles are written in general form. x2 + y2 - 14x + 8y + 53 = 0
TheFundamentalsofPublicOpinion TheRoleofthePublicOpinioninaDemocracy • Definition:collectiveattitudesandbeliesofindividualsonissue(keywordbeing collective) o Importantbecause:groupinfluencecouldchangeopinion, • Howdoyoutypicallythinkofpublicopinion o Isthisindividualorcollective o Thecaseofdeliberativepolling PoliticalSocializationProcess • Socialization:processbywhichindividualsdevelopopinions • Sourcesofopinion(socializingagents) o Family:80%ofindividualssharethesamepoliticalaffiliationsastheirparents o Education:type,quality,quantity o Socialgroups:friendgroupscanfrequentlyhavejustasgreataninfluenceas family o Genetics:opinionsoffraternaltwinscorrelateat.44whileopinionsofidentical twinscorrelateat.66 o Religion:regularreligiousservicecanshapeindividualopinion LimitationsofPublicOpinion • Publicopinionisimportantfordemocracy o Hasimportantlimits o Maybebasedonlimitedpoliticalknowledge • 90%ofcollegegraduatessayrepresentativesaremoreconservative • Potentialexplanationsforlowlevelsofpoliticalknowledge o Time:learningaboutpoliticstakesalotoftimeandeffort o Interest:somepeopleareuninterestedingovernment o Stability:Americanpolitics,comparedtomanycountries,ishighlystable o Satisfaction:ifwearehappyarewelesslikelytobeinvolved MeasuringPublicOpinion • DoestheUSspendtoomuchortoolittleonforeignaid o Lessthan1% • Samplingerror=+/-2.5% • Theprocess o Standardizedsurveysaretypicallyhowpublicopinionisgauged o Primarysurveymedium:phonecalls § Randomdigitdialing:automatedmachinesrandomlydialnumbersfroma determinedsamplingframe § Samplingframe:mightbeaphonebookorpredeterminedlistof numbers • Importantconceptsformeasuring o Population:allunitstheresearcherisinterestedinunderstanding § Ex:USpopulation,WKUstudents o Sample:allofthepeoplefromthatpopulationthatparticipatesinthesurvey § Almostallopinionpollsrelyonsamples o Achievingarepresentativesample § Quotasampling:individualsarebrokentomutuallyexclusivegroupsand selectedbasedontheircharacteristics § Randomsampling(probabilitysampling):allindividualsrelevanttothe questionhavinganequallikelihoodatbeingsampled • Startmeasuringofhowunlikely • Samplingerror:randomerrorcausedbysamplingratherthan talkingtotheentirepopulation(census) • Youwantabout1000becausemoreisnotworthit(500=4.5%) o Selectionbias:noteveryonehasanequalchanceofbeingsampled § Biggestpotentialproblemisgeneratingasampleforasurvey • Howcanthisaffectpollresults • Ex:PEWResearchCenterassessingthecellphonechallenge o Measurementerror:createdasaresultofpoorconstructionofthetools designedtomeasurepublicopinion § 2generaltypes: • Questionwordingeffects:thelanguageusedinthequestionleads tomeasurementerror • Questionordereffects
