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Understandable Statistics | 9th Edition | ISBN: 9780618949922 | Authors: Charles Henry Brase, Corrinne Pellillo Brase
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Criminal Justice: Convictions Innocent until proven

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QUESTION:

Criminal Justice: Convictions Innocent until proven guilty? In Japanese criminal trials, about 95% of the defendants are found guilty. In the United States, about 60% of the defendants are found guilty in criminal trials (Source: The Book of Risks, by Larry Laudan, John Wiley and Sons). Suppose you are a news reporter following seven criminal trials. (a) If the trials were in Japan, what is the probability that all the defendants would be found guilty? What is this probability if the trials were in the United States? (b) Of the seven trials, what is the expected number of guilty verdicts in Japan? What is the expected number in the United States? What is the standard deviation in each case? (c) Quota a U.S. news reporter, how many trials n would you need to cover to be at least 99% sure of two or more convictions? How many trials n would you need if you covered trials in Japan?

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QUESTION:

Criminal Justice: Convictions Innocent until proven guilty? In Japanese criminal trials, about 95% of the defendants are found guilty. In the United States, about 60% of the defendants are found guilty in criminal trials (Source: The Book of Risks, by Larry Laudan, John Wiley and Sons). Suppose you are a news reporter following seven criminal trials. (a) If the trials were in Japan, what is the probability that all the defendants would be found guilty? What is this probability if the trials were in the United States? (b) Of the seven trials, what is the expected number of guilty verdicts in Japan? What is the expected number in the United States? What is the standard deviation in each case? (c) Quota a U.S. news reporter, how many trials n would you need to cover to be at least 99% sure of two or more convictions? How many trials n would you need if you covered trials in Japan?

ANSWER:


a) The probability of all defendants being found guilty in Japan is 0.9049 (95% chance). The probability of all defendants being found guilty in the United States is 0.3600 (60% chance).

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