Solution Found!
In Example 3f, suppose that the new evidence is subject to
Chapter 3, Problem 34P(choose chapter or problem)
Problem 34P
In Example 3f, suppose that the new evidence is subject to different possible interpretations and in fact shows only that it is 90 percent likely that the criminal possesses the characteristic in question. In this case, how likely would it be that the suspect is guilty (assuming, as before, that he has the characteristic)?
Questions & Answers
QUESTION:
Problem 34P
In Example 3f, suppose that the new evidence is subject to different possible interpretations and in fact shows only that it is 90 percent likely that the criminal possesses the characteristic in question. In this case, how likely would it be that the suspect is guilty (assuming, as before, that he has the characteristic)?
ANSWER:
Step 1 of 2
Our goal is
Now we need to find how likely would it be that the suspect is guilty.
Let G denotes the event that the suspect is guilty.
Then the probability of the guilt of a certain suspect is
0.6
Then is
1-0.6
0.4