When coin 1 is llipped, it lands on heads with probability

Chapter 4, Problem 49P

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QUESTION:

Problem 49P

When coin 1 is llipped, it lands on heads with probability .4; when coin 2 is flipped, it lands on heads with probability .7. One of these coins is randomly chosen and flipped 10 times.

(a) What is the probability that the coin lands on heads on exactly 7 of the 10 flips?

(b) Given that the first of these 10 flips lands heads, what is the conditional probability that exactly 7 of the 10 flips land on heads?

Questions & Answers

QUESTION:

Problem 49P

When coin 1 is llipped, it lands on heads with probability .4; when coin 2 is flipped, it lands on heads with probability .7. One of these coins is randomly chosen and flipped 10 times.

(a) What is the probability that the coin lands on heads on exactly 7 of the 10 flips?

(b) Given that the first of these 10 flips lands heads, what is the conditional probability that exactly 7 of the 10 flips land on heads?

ANSWER:

Solution

Step 1 of 2

Given that when coin 1 is flipped the probability of landing on heads is 0.4

And when coin 2 is flipped the probability of landing on heads is 0.7

One of the coin is randomly selected and flipped 10 times

a) We have to find the probability that the coin lands on heads exactly 7 of the 10 flips

Here the probability of the coin selected is 1/2

If coin 1 is selected probability of getting exactly 7 heads is

Now

                         =0.0425

If coin 2 is selected probability of getting exactly 7 heads is

Now

                         =0.2668

Then

                 =0.5(0.0425+0.2668)

                  =0.1547

Hence  the probability that the coin lands on heads exactly 7 of the 10 flips is 0.1547


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