The rainfall in Seattle has been more than 15 inches every year for the past thirty

Chapter 1, Problem 3

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QUESTION:

The rainfall in Seattle has been more than 15 inches every year for the past thirty years. Therefore, the rainfall next year will probably be more than 15 inches.

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QUESTION:

The rainfall in Seattle has been more than 15 inches every year for the past thirty years. Therefore, the rainfall next year will probably be more than 15 inches.

ANSWER:

Problem 3

Determine whether the following arguments are best interpreted as being inductive or deductive. Also state the criteria you use in reaching your decision (i.e., the presence of indicator words, the nature of the inferential link between premises and conclusion, or the character or form of argumentation).

The rainfall in Seattle has been more than 15 inches every year for the past thirty years. Therefore, the rainfall next year will probably be more than 15 inches.

                                                               Step By Step Solution

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Argument, premises and conclusion

The statements that make up an argument are divided into one or more premises and exactly one conclusion.

The premises are the statements that set forth the reasons or evidence, and the conclusion is the statement that the evidence is claimed to support or imply.

That is, the conclusion is the statement that is claimed to follow from the premises.

Inductive and deductive argument

A deductive argument is an argument incorporating the claim that it is impossible for the conclusion to be false given that the premises are true.

An inductive argument is an argument incorporating the claim that it is improbable that the conclusion be false given that the premises are true.

To decide whether an argument is inductive or deductive look for

     1. the occurrence of special indicator words

     2. the actual strength of the inferential link between premises and conclusion, and

     3. the form or style of argumentation.

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