Ask Marilyn In a September 19, 2010, article in Parade

Chapter 5, Problem 60E

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QUESTION:

Problem 60E

Ask Marilyn In a September 19, 2010, article in Parade Magazine written to Ask Marilyn, Marilyn vos Savant was asked the following: Four identical sealed envelopes are on a table, one of which contains $100. You are to select one of the envelopes. Then the game host discards two of the remaining three envelopes and informs you that they do not contain the $100. In addition, the host offers you the opportunity to switch envelopes. What should you do? (a) Keep your envelope; (b) switch; (c) it does not matter.

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QUESTION:

Problem 60E

Ask Marilyn In a September 19, 2010, article in Parade Magazine written to Ask Marilyn, Marilyn vos Savant was asked the following: Four identical sealed envelopes are on a table, one of which contains $100. You are to select one of the envelopes. Then the game host discards two of the remaining three envelopes and informs you that they do not contain the $100. In addition, the host offers you the opportunity to switch envelopes. What should you do? (a) Keep your envelope; (b) switch; (c) it does not matter.

ANSWER:

Solution:

Step 1 of 2:

Four identical sealed envelopes are on the table, one of which contains $100.

One envelope is randomly selected.

Then the game host will discard two of the remaining three envelopes and inform that they do not contain.

We have to determine which is the better choice.

  1. Keep the envelope.
  2. Switch.
  3. It does not matter.

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