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# Confusion of the Inverse In one study, physicians were

ISBN: 9780321836960 18

## Solution for problem 35BB Chapter 4.5

Elementary Statistics | 12th Edition

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Elementary Statistics | 12th Edition

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Problem 35BB

Confusion of the Inverse In one study, physicians were asked to estimate the probability of a malignant cancer given that a test showed a positive result. They were told that the cancer had a prevalence rate of 1%, the test has a false positive rate of 10%, and the test is 80% accurate in correctly identifying a malignancy when the subject actually has the cancer. (See Probabilistic Reasoning in Clinical Medicine by David Eddy, Cambridge University Press.)

a. Find P (malignant | positive test result). (Hint: Assume that the study involves 1000 sub jects and use the given information to construct a table with the same format as Table.)

b. Find P (positive test result | malignant). (Hint: Assume that the study involves 1000 sub jects and construct a table with the same format as Table.)

c. Out of 100 physicians, 95 estimated P (malignant | positive test result) to be about 75%. Were those estimates reasonably accurate, or did they exhibit confusion of the inverse? What would be a consequence of confusion of the inverse in this situation?

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##### ISBN: 9780321836960

This full solution covers the following key subjects: test, Positive, Table, malignant, result. This expansive textbook survival guide covers 121 chapters, and 3629 solutions. This textbook survival guide was created for the textbook: Elementary Statistics, edition: 12. The full step-by-step solution to problem: 35BB from chapter: 4.5 was answered by , our top Statistics solution expert on 03/15/17, 10:30PM. Elementary Statistics was written by and is associated to the ISBN: 9780321836960. The answer to “Confusion of the Inverse In one study, physicians were asked to estimate the probability of a malignant cancer given that a test showed a positive result. They were told that the cancer had a prevalence rate of 1%, the test has a false positive rate of 10%, and the test is 80% accurate in correctly identifying a malignancy when the subject actually has the cancer. (See Probabilistic Reasoning in Clinical Medicine by David Eddy, Cambridge University Press.)a. Find P (malignant | positive test result). (Hint: Assume that the study involves 1000 sub jects and use the given information to construct a table with the same format as Table.)________________b. Find P (positive test result | malignant). (Hint: Assume that the study involves 1000 sub jects and construct a table with the same format as Table.)________________c. Out of 100 physicians, 95 estimated P (malignant | positive test result) to be about 75%. Were those estimates reasonably accurate, or did they exhibit confusion of the inverse? What would be a consequence of confusion of the inverse in this situation?” is broken down into a number of easy to follow steps, and 176 words. Since the solution to 35BB from 4.5 chapter was answered, more than 343 students have viewed the full step-by-step answer.

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