There is a new diagnostic test for a disease that occurs in about 0.05% of the
Chapter 1, Problem 1.5-9(choose chapter or problem)
There is a new diagnostic test for a disease that occurs in about 0.05% of the population. The test is not perfect, but will detect a person with the disease 99% of the time. It will, however, say that a person without the disease has the disease about 3% of the time. A person is selected at random from the population, and the test indicates that this person has the disease. What are the conditional probabilities that
(a) the person has the disease?
(b) the person does not have the disease? Discuss.
Hint: Note that the fraction 0.0005 of diseased persons in the population is much smaller than the error probabilities of 0.01 and 0.03.
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