Solved: One implicit assumption when using the capture-recapture method to estimate the

Chapter 14, Problem 62

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QUESTION:

One implicit assumption when using the capture-recapture method to estimate the size of a population is that the capture process is truly random, with all individuals having the same likelihood of being captured. Sometimes that is not true, and some populations have a large number of individuals that are trap-happy individuals (more prone to capture than others, more likely to take the bait, less cagey, slower, dumber, etc.). If that were the case, would the capture-recapture method be likely to underestimate or overestimate the size of the population? Explain your answer.

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QUESTION:

One implicit assumption when using the capture-recapture method to estimate the size of a population is that the capture process is truly random, with all individuals having the same likelihood of being captured. Sometimes that is not true, and some populations have a large number of individuals that are trap-happy individuals (more prone to capture than others, more likely to take the bait, less cagey, slower, dumber, etc.). If that were the case, would the capture-recapture method be likely to underestimate or overestimate the size of the population? Explain your answer.

ANSWER:

Step 1 of 2

Recall that the two-sample method or capture-recapture method for estimating population of size  relies on three variables:  (the number of tagged individuals),  (size of the first sample), and  (size of the second sample. Solving this proportion for  gives an estimation for population.

The underlying assumption in this formula is that the proportion of tagged individuals found in the second sample (the fraction on the left) will be approximately equal to the proportion of the population that was tagged in the first sample (the fraction on the right).

If a researcher is studying a population in which some individuals are more prone to capture then the second sample (the recapture stage) will likely catch most of the same individuals captured in the first sample (the capture stage).

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