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Sampling A sample is chosen randomly from a population that can be described by a Normal

Stats Modeling the World | 4th Edition | ISBN: 9780321854018 | Authors: David E. Bock, Paul F. Velleman, Richard D. De Veaux ISBN: 9780321854018 481

Solution for problem 33 Chapter 17

Stats Modeling the World | 4th Edition

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Stats Modeling the World | 4th Edition | ISBN: 9780321854018 | Authors: David E. Bock, Paul F. Velleman, Richard D. De Veaux

Stats Modeling the World | 4th Edition

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Problem 33

Sampling A sample is chosen randomly from a population that can be described by a Normal model. a) Whats the sampling distribution model for the sample mean? Describe shape, center, and spread. b) If we choose a larger sample, whats the effect on this sampling distribution model?

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ADV 3008 Exam 2 COPYWRITING Copy - words  Every word spoken or seen in an ad  Elements of copy; dialogue, voiceover, headline, tagline, words in logo, body copy o Body copy - main text of an ad  Headline - most important copy component of a print ad o Direct headline - to the point; must include both the  Product name & the benefit/attribute; tied to product appeals  Used a lot by retailers, can hinder further reading o Indirect headline - makes you read further into the ad to get more information  Use curiosity, puns, word play, creates an interest; result in higher readerships o Headline tasks - most important  Attract attention & unique to one specific ad  Segment readers; allows readers to know if that ad is for them  lead readers into copy; headline grabs the reader  Tagline (slogan) - can be part of a headline o Gain attention & acts as a consistent link to the campaign o Summarize the brand's position; how do consumers perceive brands o Effective taglines should be  Relatively short, easy to remember, trigger thoughts about the brand  Ex. "nationwide is on your side" "the best or nothing"  Logo - visual design, made to provoke thought; instant recognition o Design that represent s the company or product, sometimes appears with words o Serves as a cue to recall & provides continuity  Components of Body Copy - guts of an ad, not fine print o Stricture (logical flow) not always in paragraphs but  Lead paragraph is tied to the headline, interior paragraphs explain information, final paragraph is the call to action  Writing Good Copy o Benefit to the reader, why should they care  Solution to a problem & consumer point of view; only purpose o Write to one person  Use psychographics to make the copy appealing to a large target group but making it seem like it was written for single consumer o Involve the reader, present the unexpected o Credibility & believability  Especially important when dealing with facts  Copy can help increase credibility; more high involvement the product is, the more important credibility is  Writing style - impacted by the audience  Relationship building, conversational tone, personal PRINT PRODUCTION Layout - the orderly arrangement of all the copy & artwork  Headlines & illustrations are the most likely elements of a print as to stop the reader (grab their attention)  Visual vs. verbal ADV 3008 Exam 2 o Shift over the decades from heavy reliance in copy to a greater emphasis on visual o Both elements must work together  Visual = broad image; subject to interpretation  Copy = main point; fill in missing details (helps everything stay together)  Illustration Tasks o Attract attention for the headline, convey broad ideas & benefits, create feelings & emotion, & can tell a story  Illustration Contents o Product stands alone; unique feature, more uncommon (ex. Tiffany & co.) o Product in use; shows the benefits of & how to use the product o Creation of image & mood; feeling you get when looking at an ad o Charts, table, graphs; more likely to read & retain, good when you have a lot of info o Dramatization of product features; hard to show through an ad (ex. Gum) Design  Balance - equality of an ad's elements horizontally & vertically; make the ad more visually appealing  Focal point - the single element that draws the reader into the ad; what does your eye notice first o Should only have one focal point per ad  Copy -> headline & visual - > illustration/photo  Everything has a purpose, nothing is random  Eye Movement - the manner in which the eye reads an ad o Natural path of the eye is a zig zig (Z pattern), from left to right  Easy to follow, doesn't always engage the reader o Gaze motion - created by a layout that purposely breaks the natural eye movement; disruptive ads  Eyes: readers follow eye of model; whether direct eye contact or to something in the ad they want you to see  Limbs & structures guide your eyes  Unity - the extent to which all elements of an ad tie together; continuity in a campaign o Want all ads in a campaign to fit message strategy & relate to each other Types of Layouts  Picture Window (standard) o Good for incorporating visual & body copy o Illustration -> headline -> body copy  Poster (very emotional) o When image of brand is more important than the actual product (brand equity)  Bold visual with limited copy that creates mood, image, & feeling  Copy Heavy o Extensive body copy with little or no visual support o Usually serious & involving topics; inform the reader BROADCAST PRODUCTION Scripts - written by copy write  specifies the audio & video instructions; what is seen & heard  allows for discussion of proposed commercial; involves many ppl in different departments  internal use - primarily internal; based on creative brief Storyboard  developed from the script, blue print for production ADV 3008 Exam 2  components o pictures showing scenes o video - written description of what the camera does o audio - written description of what is going to be said  presentation o more and more storyboards put together as sketches o used by agencies to sell their ideas TV Production  preproduction - all planning & decisions prior to filming o casting, wardrobe, set design, location, security o one client approves storyboard  production - shooting the storyboard o usually the shortest stage o political ads are quickly produced o ad on avg. cost $1 million  post Production - all activity after the filming of the storyboard o editing, music, graphics, narrator Creative Effective TV Commercials  visually captivating - capture audience attention  K.I.S.S. (keep it sweet & simple) o focus on one central theme in each ad; one main idea  opening is crucial, attention must be caught & held early on  entertainment as a means to sell; ads should be entertaining but have to tie back to the product  ads but be believable within the context of the ad; credibility is crucial  when possible, ads should show desired behavior/product in use  just bc all elements are used, does not mean that it is an effective ad Radio Production  everything is what you hear, no visuals can create difficulties  creating effective radio commercials o grab attention early to avoid station switching & tuning out o theater of the mind - using voices, sound effects & music to allow the listener's imagination create visuals o music/jingles make the commercial more memorable; most are music based o image transfer- transferring a visual created on TV to radio  Mayhem & All State (works for TV -> radio but not radio -> TV) o K.I.S.S o ask for action bc you can't show what behavior is desired o repetition makes up for lack of visual support bc listener can't see the product  Specific radio strategies o humor is a good selling point, unique voices, sound effects, music ASSESSMENT RESEARCH Directional Research  guides the creative effort by providing a clearer view of the realties faced by the creative team  useful during situation analysis o consumer, product, competitive & macro analysis Assessment Research - was the ad effective  evaluates the success of the creative product in achieving strategic objectives ADV 3008 Exam 2  usually don't have money to spend on both, probably better to spend money upfront on research  conducted throughout the entire creative process; keep track of how you're doing Pretesting  developmental (concept) pretesting o happens early in the creative process during strategy development  are these concepts appropriate for achieving the objectives o quick & inexpensive feedback achieved by small sample sizes; focus groups o focus on awareness & attitude changes o get ideas on how ideas would resonate with the target market Final Pretest  finished or close to finishing ads, final check before major investment in media  largest portion of budget on production of ads  field test - test market o more common, conducted under natural conditions o sacrifice control for real world impact; can’t control competitor's products or other ads in that area  laboratory Test - no external factors o exposure in a controlled setting o sacrifice realism for control; respondents are paid, not realistic conditions  testing does not guarantee success Post-Testing  evaluation of campaign objectives after the campaign has been launched into the market place  beginning of situation analysis for the next campaign o use the information/feedback from current campaign & apply that knowledge to the next  gives opportunity to make adjustments; measure DAGMAR objectives What is Measured  Awareness - most commonly measured variable; crucial to success of ad o way to stand out; spending more money & being creative o 86% of advertising goes unnoticed o day after recall - the percent of respondents that can recall a message the day after exposure to the message  problems:  low involvement products often test poorly  less effectives for emotional messages than informational  may measure intrusiveness, not effectiveness  reduces creative judgment to s single number; hard to quantify creativity  may lead to less than idea decisions  just because you remember an ad doesn’t mean you liked it  Attitude - changes in perception  Behavior  more common in post testing  sales results; easiest to measure  other variables affect sales, not just the ad  purchase intent  Physiological Response - how your bod reacts to ads  least commonly measured ADV 3008 Exam 2  no mental effort, not natural; difficult to interpret results bc no way to be sure about what caused the reaction Methods Available  Experiments - cause & effect based on exposure to an ad  field experiments; natural viewing, sacrifices control  laboratory experiments; artificial viewing environment, control, sacrifices realism  Surveys  phone - lack of compliance; losing popularity  internet - rapid & inexpensive; fastest growing  focus groups  used to develop ideas on ads, products, uses of products  qualitative data - subjective, can be interpreted differently  small groups lead by a moderator (6-12 ppl)  very detailed, open ended discussion; want participants to talk  problems  subjective analysis  companies run too few groups; don't give an accurate representation of the population  appearance of reality; not exposed to enough info so their responses are inaccurate  consumers aren't experts on advertising  consumer opinion is not the remedy for the ad's problems MEDIA TERMS  Reach - unduplicated/net - percent of the target market that is exposed to the message at least once during the relevant time period (how many) o relevant time period - varied measure of time, usually a four week cycle; seasonal time periods (ex. Holidays or seasonal products)  Frequency - average number of exposure received by a member of the target market during the relevant time period (how many) o same target market measured for reach & frequency o reach & frequency go together, inverse relationship (as long as the ad budget remains constant, when one increases the other decreases )  Rating - percent of the target market that is tuned in to a specific program or station o cost of advertising time is largely a function of the rating; potential audience o higher the rating, the more money they can charge for a certain ad time or space o V = R; V = viewers PA = potential audience R = rating PA  Share - percent of target market's sets in use at a particular time that are tuned to a specific program or station; actual audience o V = SH; V = viewers AA = actual audience SH = share AA o using the share will give you a larger percent than the rating bc it uses the actual audience vs. the potential audience  Gross rating points (GRP)- total number of all rating points in a media plan o net reach x avg. frequency (R X F = GRP)  (80)R x (5)F = 400 GRP  higher than 100 GRP, how bc they're reaching ppl multiple times  different media have different levels of frequency & reach o message weight; how heavy is your media schedule (GRP = R) ADV 3008 Exam 2 F o measure of duplicated reach - reach including frequency; (GRP = F)  GRP & inverse relationships R  Cost Per Thousand (CPM) - cost of an ad x 1000 / the audience reached o how much is an advertisers spending to reach every 1000 ppl  cannot buy fractions of ppl, have to buy the whole ad o measure of cost efficiency o intra-media comparisons; more effective to compare similar types of media to each other BROADCAST MEDIA  Media Mix - the combination of media an advertiser used to deliver its message to the target audience o Media mix varies depending on the ad campaign  Television o Strengths  Broad reach - delivers message to large audiences in a short time; low segmentation  Cost effective - low cpm; cost is per thousand ppl  Combination of sight & sound; powerful communication o Weaknesses  Expensive overall total cost  Low involvement medium - passive engagement with content; multitasking through a show  Ad skipping - fast forwarding with dvrs through commercials; use commercial breaks to get up & do chores, use the restroom, get food, etc.  Time shifting - delayed viewing with dvrs; skip commercials altogether  Clutter - many competing messages; difficult for one ad to stick out  Creativity is key  not only competing with direct competitors, but also all other ad types on tv o Reach  High, broad, low segmentation o Frequency  Low involvement medium calls for high frequency schedules  Need high frequency to be effective, each rating point costs money, larger companies get more out of tv ads because they have more money  Radio - popular among retailers o Strengths  Audience segmentation - highly fragmented; very narrow  Each segment attracts a different type of listener  Low cost - small amount of ppl listening to each station; cheaper & more effective  Accessible - widely available  Local - most money for ads come from local bars, car dealers, weather stations, etc.  Image transfer - visual -> radio; recognize voices in radio ads previously seen on tv  Listener loyalty - station loyalty, programmed stations o Weaknesses  Limited reach - individual stations have low reach bc of the narrow programing  Low involvement - passive engagement, background noise; ppl don't just gather around to listen to the radio like they would to watch tv ADV 3008 Exam 2  Clutter - there are many competing messages; longer commercial breaks, ppl usually change the station during commercial breaks o Reach  Segmented due to audience selectivity  Build reach by buying different stations; in hindsight they could just purchase a tv ad with that money o Frequency  High across narrow targets  Used to complement the reach of tvs  Cable Television o Best of tv & radio  Low cost; similar to radio  Audience segmentation  Very targeted with certain commercials on specific channels  A lot of channels to chose from meaning there is greater segmentation  Sight, sound, motion - more specific the product, the more effective cables ad are o Very low reach for each channel, tailored messages; sacrifice the reach of regular tv  Broadcast Cost Variables o Usually negotiated o More spent, lower unit cost; the more an advertiser spends, the lower the per unit cost  Audience size (most important) more ppl in an audience, the more money it costs; ratings  Supply & demand  Limited supply of time, can't make more of it  Greater the demand for time -> lower supply -> higher price  Less demand -> greater supply -> lower price  Variable advertising demand  Tv  4th quarter (Oct-Dec) is the most costly; higher demand in shopping season  3rd quarter (July-Sep) is the least costly; summer time, more ppl are away from tv  Radio  3rd quarter (July-Sep) is the most costly; more ppl listen to the radio when they are outside vs. watching tv  Day part - segment the broadcast day; drive time, prime time  Geographic coverage - low coverage, won't pay to advertise in an area the station doesn't reach; more common in radio  Editorial content - type of message  Length of message o The more you spend overall, the less you pay per unit o More desirable times are more expensive PRINT & EMERGING MEDIA Magazines  Categories o General interest/news; high readership, broad markets (not detailed in depth) o Special interest; designed for a specific demographic, very special target market  Most magazines are special interest ADV 3008 Exam 2 o Business publication/trade journals; specific groups of professionals, narrowly targeted  Strengths o Provide advertisers with specific reach; long life (pass along readership), production quality of paper, images, & videos in digital magazines o High involvement; active engagement with content (have to be physically reading & engaged when reading) o Detailed presentation of info; preselected content, more likely to pay attention to ads more relevant to you  Weaknesses o Deadlines; far ahead in time, have to set content & print in advance o No control over timing; readers are exposed to ads at varied times, never know when o Clutter; competing messages, fashion more cluttered than business mags  Reach o Specific opportunities o Minimal wasted coverage; paying for ppl not in your target market  Pass along readership increase reach, others in household read same mags  Frequency o Difficult to build; monthly or weekly, not as often as tv o Rereading increases frequency o Multiple ads may be purchased in one issue; increase cost  Medium for generating reach within a segmented target audience Newspaper  Strengths o Catalog value; allows for detailed info to be presented  Weaknesses o Wasted coverage if there is a narrow market; even if no one reads the ads, the company still has to pa for them  Broader target market more effective newspaper ad o Poor production quality; mass produced, sometimes sloppy o Short life span; 1-2 days, new paper released everyday, old one gets forgotten o Declining readership; attempt to make up for this with digital readership, not too successful; ppl not willing to pay for news online bc you can get it free elsewhere o Clutter; many competing ads; Sundays are most cluttered bc ppl have more leisure time & more likely to notice their ad  Least cluttered day is Monday, ppl are back to work & it is a slow day in retail  Reach o High non-segmented reach in a local market o Easy to build  Frequency o Easy to build bc the paper comes out everyday o Can advertise in multiple sections of the paper Print Cost Variables  Single most important variable = audience size  Placement position o Destination sites - higher premium o Covers  Back cover is the most expensive place to advertise in most magazine ADV 3008 Exam 2 o Size  The larger the ad, the more expensive o Color  Most rates are based on color used in ads  Full color ads are the most expensive o Quantity of the Purchase  Bulk purchasers get a volume discount o Special paper  Scented ads, open fold ads Out-of-Home (OOH) - advertising messages away from home  Support medium, not main form of advertising; get very creative  Billboards, transit, airports, blimps, stadium  Strengths - many strategic advantages o Long life leads to high frequency  Ppl usually travel the same routes daily, high exposure  High reach through purchase of certain locations & quantity of ads  Bulk ads purchased for all buses in a city or on each corner, etc.  Possible minimal wasted coverage  Weaknesses o Limited message  Seeing billboards, not able to read a lot of into  Ads in a stadium, see them multiple times, but message never changes  There is a lot of reliance on visual content to capture attention, little copy  Reach o Broad reach - geographic segmentation  Many different types & amounts of ppl in a single area  Frequency o High - long life, repetitive travel patterns Out of home Cost Variables  Audience size, size of the board, quantity of purchase (more you buy, the less you pay per ad), location (high demand location, more expensive), duration of purchase (better rate for longer term purchases), clutter (many competing messages) EMERGING MEDIA Internet  Strengths o Target market selectivity; not much wasted coverage o Low cost for wide coverage o Immediately know how effective their ad strategy is working; able to retrieve info about their ad's statistics o Geo-targeting - delivering content based on location o Increased opportunity for communication  Internet always open, customer directed to website, numerous informative papers can be presented  More customer relationship oriented  Weaknesses o Intrusive, unwanted ads pop up ADV 3008 Exam 2 o Low click through rates, just close out ads (1-2% will click) o Word of mouth o Clutter - difficult for ads to break through (84% don't)  Must be creative Types of Internet Advertising  Display advertising - web banners or banner ads placed on a 3rd party website to drive traffic to a company's own  Sponsorship - payments to maintain another site o Full page takeover - an ad that takes over a webpage, usually animated o Interactive advertorials - looks like a tutorial, featured as news media but paid for by a company; computer doesn't read as an ad bc of the source  Pop-up/Under - a page opens either in front or behind another window while it is loading o In front = pop up, behind = pop-under o Retargeting - monitor what you were looking at & then 'following' you to other pages & advertise there  Email o Permission marketing - viewers give permission to receive emails  Streaming Audio & Video o Inserting tv or radio ads into content (pre rolls)  Little clutter, forced viewing (ads on youtube before your video starts)  Usually allowed to skip the ad after a few seconds  97% of ads not fully being viewed  Little wasted coverage Other Emerging Media  Social Media - various online technology tools that allow ppl to communicate easily via the internet to share info & resources o Allows for relationship building between company & users o Fb, twitter, instagram, snapchat, pinterest, youtube  Mobile advertising o Ads sent via text o Mobile web banner - banner ad at top of page viewed b mobile device o Mobile web poster - banner at bottom of page viewed by mobile device o Apps & games; companies make apps to increase visibility of the brand & engage customers  Product placement - product placed in programming content  Sponsorships - company provides funding in exchange for being mentioned as an event sponsor MEDIA PLANNING  Media Planning - maximize prospects reached while minimizing waste o Medium vs. Vehicle  Medium - broad category of message delivery; magazine, tv, radio etc.  Vehicle - specific delivery system within a media category; GQ, TIME, Sports Illustrated  Quantitative vehicle decisions (objective)  Which vehicles deliver the message to the target  Cpm of alternative vehicles  Ability of different vehicles to build reach or frequency over time  Narrow down options to a list that would fit the budget & guidelines  Qualitative vehicle decisions (subjective) ADV 3008 Exam 2  Appropriate editorial content for the message o Scheduling  Marginal learning theory - the amount of new knowledge acquired with each exposure  Marginal learning decreases as repetitions increased; the effectiveness of an ad decreases as exposure increases  Acquire less new knowledge as exposure increases, but overall amount of knowledge increases (cumulatively more, marginally less)  Without repetitions learning decays very rapidly  Keep same ad strategy, but change the ad to keep the info fresh  Scheduling strategy  Concentrating repetitions in a condensed period of time creates lower overall awareness than distributing them over an extended period of time  Condensed time period -> less overall awareness (concentrated reps; toys r us)  Extended time -> more overall awareness (distributed reps; friskies cat food)  Choice depends on the advertising objectives; sometimes companies use both methods  Factors Affecting Scheduling  Single exposure is usually ineffective  Goal should be to enhance frequency, not reach; maximize reach at desired frequency level  Base frequency of 3, during a 4 week period  Varies based on objectives o Marketing factors Less frequency More frequency Established brand vs. new brand Dominant brand vs. smaller brand Brand loyalty vs. brand switching Long purchase cycle vs. short purchase cycle  Purchase cycle - amount of time between purchases o Creative factors Less frequency More frequency Simple message vs. Complex message Product appeal vs. Consumer appeal Small message pool vs. Large message pool  Message pool - the number of different ads the advertiser has produced o Media factors Less frequency More frequency Low clutter vs. High clutter High involvement vs. Low involvement  Editorial content - the surrounding environment of the ad  Media dominance o Used by smaller advertisers; gives appearance of dominance o Can be effective or intrusive ADV 3008 Exam 2 o A large percentage of limited budget is spent in a medium or vehicle to ensure adequate frequency o Easier to break through the clutter, appear bigger than you are  Defensive scheduling o Used by larger advertisers o Overspending on advertising to force competitors to under spend; buy them out of dominance

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Chapter 17, Problem 33 is Solved
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Textbook: Stats Modeling the World
Edition: 4
Author: David E. Bock, Paul F. Velleman, Richard D. De Veaux
ISBN: 9780321854018

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Sampling A sample is chosen randomly from a population that can be described by a Normal