The article A Probabilistic Model of Fracture in Concrete

Povertyand Intervention March18,2016 2:37PM Humanitarianintervention: Genuinehumanitarianinterventionisunlikely,asrealistanalysisgoes,butwhilenoteverysinglecountry willparticipate,orwilljoinforhumanreasons,itisstillpossible.Anationmaywanttointerveneina placewithmanyofitsnationalsorwitha connectiontoit.This isn'tbad,they'restilltryingtolookout fortheirpeople.Thequestioniswhatprinciplesgovernit. Buttherealquestionis,whatwouldthealternativebeNotdoinganythingisn'tacceptable,buthowdo wemakesurewe'renothurtingthesituationandhowtoweimproveitinthe longrunLookingat long- termissues,we'renotthatgoodat fixingit.Tensionsmayflareuplater,ora disastercouldstrike. Poverty: Today'squestionis,whatroleisplayedbyglobalpoliticsandgovernanceonthepersistenceofpoverty Therearetwosetsofapproachesto poverty.Theorthodoxapproachissimple,alacko resourcesto meetone'sneeds.Theotherdefinitionismoreabstract,theinabilitytomeetone'sneedandtorealise oneselfandmaintaintheirwellbeing,physicalorotherwise. Thecausesofpovertyarea majorpointofdiscussion.Availabilityofresourcesalwayscomesup,and nowclimatefactorsarecomingintothediscussion.Deficientinfrastructureortheabsenceofitcan makeeconomicexchangedifficultorimpossible.Youcan'taccessmarketsorexchangeanything.Access tohealthandeducationservicesisacause,andpoliticalinstabilityandconflictaregoingtocausemajor issues.Allthispointstothecreationofpovertytraps.Thisistheideathatmost orallthesefactorsare there.Theycanbegottenridof,but you can't do itbecauseyoudon't havethemeans.Aninvestmentof somemoneyorresourcescouldgiveyouthemeanstoriseupeconomically,butmaybeyoudon'thave themeanstomakethat investment.Outsidefactors,likenaturaldisasters,canmakeitamuch worse problemaswell,soyoucanneversaveevenasmallamountforyourself. ThomasMalthusputforwardan ideainthe 1800s that humanitywasdoomed.Cropyieldgrows arithmetically,hesaid,whilehumanpopulationgrowsexponentially. Malthusconsideredthepeoplevulnerabletothesameissuesasrabbits,starvation,predators,illness. Wedon'thavepredators,andillnessisalwayslessofanissuethanitwasbefore.Malthusfocusedon starvation,sayinghumansexpandedgeometrically,doublingevery25years,butfoodexpanded arithmetically,andcouldn'tgrowfastenough.Peoplewouldgrowtoomuchandcausea famine,then dieout.Then,makemorepeopleanddoitallagain.Thisledto lackof EnglishinterventionintheIrish potatofamine. However,duringhislifethepopulationgrewbyhalfabillion.Nowwehavesevenbillion.HEwaswriting atthetimethat itwas juststartingto swingup.He didn'trealisethatmajorinnovationsinfood productionwerehappening.China,forinstance,wasrevolutionisingricefarming.Europewasalso learningaboutanimalhusbandryandseedpresses.Tohim,itseemedlikethiswasjustdelayingthe inevitabledeathandcausingmoremisery.Agriculturalinnovationswereactuallyprovinghimwrong. Thistheoryisstillsupportedbymany,especiallywithclimatechangeandtheideathatthereisjustfinite spaceontheplanet.Malthusdidn'tseeusadaptingwelltoenvironmentalchanges,buthumanscan actuallyadaptandbenefit. Thisreasoningisatthecore ofmany traditionalororthodoxideasofwhattodo and whatthecauses are.Criticspointoutthehugeincreaseinfoodproductionwe'veseen.Theyalsopointoutthatthe globalsouthmakesmostofthefoodandthenorth buysmostof it.Studieshaveshownwhenfamines occur,foodavailabilitypercapitahasn'treducedprecedingit,itwasbecauseofotherconcerns. However,wedohavefoodissues.Richerpeoplewantmoremeatandthings,whichtakesmore resourcetomake. Therearemanychallengesfordevelopmentofpoverty-strickenareas.Nationsandregionshavelimited resources,andpopulationsizeordensitycanbeahugeproblem.Diseasecanreallyaffectthingsaswell. resources,andpopulationsizeordensitycanbeahugeproblem.Diseasecanreallyaffectthingsaswell. It'sdifferentforeachplace,andwedon'tknowifinterveningwillwork.Thereareseveraloptionsof whattodo, andwe can't besurewhat theright choiceis. Casestudy#1: MillenniumDevelopmentGoals TheUN launched frameworkwitheightgoalstofightpoverty.Thefirstwastohalveextremepoverty andhunger,achieveuniversalprimaryeducation,promotegenderequality,reducechildmortality, improvematernalhealth,combatvariousmajordiseases,ensureenvironmentalsustainabilityand developaglobalpartnershipfordevelopment. Theratepeopleindevelopingcountriesunderextremepovertyhasgonefrom47%to14%. Thegoalof halvingitwasmetfiveyearsearly,andwhiletheywouldhavelikedtoeliminateit,it'sstillnumerically quitenice. Forgettingkidsintoprimaryeducation,thenumberofthemoutofschoolwentdownfrom100 million to57. Theglobalnumberofdeathsinchildrenunder5wentfrom12.7 millionto6million. Substantialprogresshasbeenmade,althoughitislimited,andit'sverydisparateacrossregions.Alotof thedatacame fromChinaspecifically,withitsmassivepopulationandgrowth.Thegoalstostaunching genderinequalityweremet,butotherissuespersistthatwerenottouched.Incomeinequalityhas increased,especiallyalongtherural-urbandivide. Pros:Nationscanhelpeachotherout andpush eachotherto bebetter.It respectssovereigntysince youcan go aboutithoweveryoulike,butyouhavetoreportit. It wasn'ta lot oftime,butit startedfrom alargeknowledgebase. Cons:Notenoughattentionwasgiventoseproblems,especiallyinruralregions.Settingaggressive goalsmeanttheyweregoingtogoafterthe easiernumberstochange,whichleftsomeoftheharder issues.Jurisdictioncouldgetinthewayaswell,withsomecountriestryingtokeepothersoutandsome countriesbeingpushedtomakechangestheydidn'thavethemeansto,althoughprogressreportseach yearcan mitigatethis,showingwhattheycanandcan't do.This seta fieldformoreinternational conflict.Structuralfactorscanbehard to factorin.Politicalinstitutionsandeconomiescanbevery importantandveryhardto address. Thereisa newsetofgoalsfor2030, the SustainableDevelopmentGoals.Firstistoeradicateextreme poverty,definedaslessthan$1.25/day.It'sa verylonglistofgoalsthough,notas simpleaframework andfewguidelinesfortheinternationalcommunity. TheMDG's experienceshowshowtheinternationalcommunitycagettogetherandhavepositive impactsontheseissuesandhavediscussions.Itcanalsohavea reallynegativeimpact,likeapproach andwhoimposeswhatonwho. PovertyandtheGlobalEconomy: Globaltradeiseasyenoughtoexplain,goodsandservicesconsumedoutofthenationofitsmaking.The practiceismuchmorecomplicated,butthebasicideaisthere.Globalfinanceishardertodefine,It's referringtointernationalflowsofmoneyforinvestmentandtradefinancing.Inthefinancialincomesfor middleincomecountries,aidisn'tamajorpart of income,butitreallyisforlowincomecountries. Thereisa regionaldisparityfortrade,mostofitisbetweenwesterncountries.Countriesandcompanies arepressuredtofollowtheirownprinciples,aCanadiancompanygetsintohotwaterifitworkswitha dictatororin a placewithlaxenvironmentallaws. Threeinstitutionsarethemostimportantforthis.TheWorldTradeOrganisation,puttingalegal frameworkfortradearoundtheworld.Theywanttostop alliancesaroundit,puteveryoneatthesame table.TheInternationalMonetaryfund,whichhasaprettybadreputationsincethe80s and90s. They tryto ensureworldfinancialstability,includinglendingmoneytocountriesinfinancialcrises.Andthe WorldBank,whichismostlyfocusedondevelopmentprojectsandgivingexpertisetoeconomically developingcountries,similartotheWTO. Thereisgoodinthisintermsof poverty.Ifyou'rea memberoftheWTO you haverightsandhelpand accesstoexpertise.IMFloanscanhelpouta country incrisis,providingfundstostabilisethecountry. TheWorldBankhas fundedmanyprojectsfocusedondevelopment,althoughitisoftencriticisedfor notmeetingitsgoals.Butevenstill,ithashelpedmanypeople. Thereare,ofcourse,consforthisas well.TheWTOis abouttraderules,andlegaldisputesaskfor expertisemanycountriesdon'thave.Itmightpreventtougherenvironmentalandlabourregulations. TheWTO agreementisabout10000 pages,mostofwhichare exceptions.Havingalegalsystemthatis notenforcedisaproblem.TheIMF andWB are dominatedbecountriesthatfinancethem,sothis introducesalotofpolitics. TheWTO wasmeantto bringallthecountriesintotheglobaleconomyandhavethembenefitfrom largemarketsandsellcheapgoods.Ifyou'reanunderdevelopedcountry,mostofwhatyou'vegotis agriculturalandrawproducts.TheWTO hasn't beengoodat gettingrichcountriestoabandontheir systemsofagriculturalsupport.TheIMFandtheWB are criticisedfortheideologicalpositions embeddedinsomeoftheirprograms.Intheory,thisismeanttostopdictatorsfromkeepingmoney fromtheirpeople,butinpractice,policyrestrictionssetbytheIMFhavetakenchoiceawayfromnon- dictatorialregimesandhaveimpactedthelivesofthepeopleinthecountrywhocan'thavea saynow.