Solved: A truth serum has the property that 90% of the

Chapter 3, Problem 2.103

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A truth serum has the property that 90% of the guilty suspects are properly judged while, of course, 10% of the guilty suspects are improperly found innocent. On the other hand, innocent suspects are misjudged 1% of the time. If the suspect was selected from a group of suspects of which only 5% have ever committed a crime, and the serum indicates that he is guilty, what is the probability that he is innocent?

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