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Risk of a natural gas pipeline accident. Process Safety
Chapter 3, Problem 74E(choose chapter or problem)
Problem 74E
Risk of a natural gas pipeline accident. Process Safety Progress (Dec. 2004) published a risk analysis for a natural gas pipeline between Bolivia and Brazil. The most likely scenario for an accident would be natural gas leakage from a hole in the pipeline. The probability that the leak ignites immediately (causing a jet fire) is .01. If the leak does not immediately ignite, it may result in a delayed ignition of a gas cloud. Given no immediate ignition, the probability of delayed ignition (causing a flash fire) is .01. If there is no delayed ignition, the gas cloud will harmlessly disperse. Suppose a leak occurs in the natural gas pipeline. Find the probability that either a jet fire or a flash fire will occur. Illustrate with a tree diagram.
Questions & Answers
QUESTION:
Problem 74E
Risk of a natural gas pipeline accident. Process Safety Progress (Dec. 2004) published a risk analysis for a natural gas pipeline between Bolivia and Brazil. The most likely scenario for an accident would be natural gas leakage from a hole in the pipeline. The probability that the leak ignites immediately (causing a jet fire) is .01. If the leak does not immediately ignite, it may result in a delayed ignition of a gas cloud. Given no immediate ignition, the probability of delayed ignition (causing a flash fire) is .01. If there is no delayed ignition, the gas cloud will harmlessly disperse. Suppose a leak occurs in the natural gas pipeline. Find the probability that either a jet fire or a flash fire will occur. Illustrate with a tree diagram.
ANSWER:
Answer
Step 1 of 1
The probability that the leak ignites immediately is 0.01.
Given no immediate ignition, the probability of delayed ignition is 0.01.
We need to find the probability that either a jet fire ( leak ignites immediately ) or a flash fire (delayed ignition ) will occur.
We need to Illustrate with a tree diagram.
Lets define the following events:
Let be the event that leak ignites immediately ( Jet fire).