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Introduction to Probability, | 2nd Edition | ISBN: 9781886529236 | Authors: Dimitri P. Bertsekas John N. Tsitsiklis
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Alice searches for her term paper in her filing cabinet.

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QUESTION:

Alice searches for her term paper in her filing cabinet. which has several drawers. She knows that she left her term paper in drawer j with probability Pi > O. The drawers are so messy that even if she correctly guesses that the term paper is in drawer i. the probability that she finds it is only di. Alice searches in a particular drawer. say drawer i. but the search is unsuccessful. Conditioned on this event, show that the probability that her paper is in drawer j, is given by Pi Pi(l - di) if j = i. 1 - p,di . if j = i.

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QUESTION:

Alice searches for her term paper in her filing cabinet. which has several drawers. She knows that she left her term paper in drawer j with probability Pi > O. The drawers are so messy that even if she correctly guesses that the term paper is in drawer i. the probability that she finds it is only di. Alice searches in a particular drawer. say drawer i. but the search is unsuccessful. Conditioned on this event, show that the probability that her paper is in drawer j, is given by Pi Pi(l - di) if j = i. 1 - p,di . if j = i.

ANSWER:

Step 1 of 4

Given that,

Alice searches for her term paper in her filing cabinet. which has several drawers. She knows that she left her term paper in drawer j with probability . The drawers are so messy that even if she correctly guesses that the term paper is in drawer i. the probability that she finds it is only . Alice searches in a particular drawer say drawer i. but the search is unsuccessful.

Conditioned on this event, it is required to show that the probability that her paper is in drawer j, is given by :

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