Solution Found!
Suppose that a nonmathematical, but philosophically
Chapter 3, Problem 31TE(choose chapter or problem)
Problem 31TE
Suppose that a nonmathematical, but philosophically minded, friend of yours claims that Laplace’s rule of succession must be incorrect because it can lead to ridiculous conclusions. “For instance,” says he, “the rule states that if a boy is 10 years old, having lived 10 years, the boy has probability of living another year. On the other hand, if the boy has an 80-year-old grandfather, then, by Laplace’s rule, the grandfather has probability of surviving another year. However, this is ridiculous. Clearly, the boy is more likely to survive an additional year than the grandfather is.” Flow would you answer your friend?
Questions & Answers
QUESTION:
Problem 31TE
Suppose that a nonmathematical, but philosophically minded, friend of yours claims that Laplace’s rule of succession must be incorrect because it can lead to ridiculous conclusions. “For instance,” says he, “the rule states that if a boy is 10 years old, having lived 10 years, the boy has probability of living another year. On the other hand, if the boy has an 80-year-old grandfather, then, by Laplace’s rule, the grandfather has probability of surviving another year. However, this is ridiculous. Clearly, the boy is more likely to survive an additional year than the grandfather is.” Flow would you answer your friend?
ANSWER:
Step 1 of 2
Laplace’s rule of succession must be incorrect because it can lead to ridiculous conclusions.
Then the boy and the grandfather probability is
The boy has probability