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OpenIntro Statistics | 3rd Edition | ISBN: 9781943450039 | Authors: David M Diez; Christopher D Barr; Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel
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Predisposition for thrombosis. A genetic test is used to

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QUESTION:

Predisposition for thrombosis. A genetic test is used to determine if people have a predisposition for thrombosis, which is the formation of a blood clot inside a blood vessel that obstructs the flow of blood through the circulatory system. It is believed that 3% of people actually have this predisposition. The genetic test is 99% accurate if a person actually has the predisposition, meaning that the probability of a positive test result when a person actually has the predisposition is 0.99. The test is 98% accurate if a person does not have the predisposition. What is the probability that a randomly selected person who tests positive for the predisposition by the test actually has the predisposition?

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QUESTION:

Predisposition for thrombosis. A genetic test is used to determine if people have a predisposition for thrombosis, which is the formation of a blood clot inside a blood vessel that obstructs the flow of blood through the circulatory system. It is believed that 3% of people actually have this predisposition. The genetic test is 99% accurate if a person actually has the predisposition, meaning that the probability of a positive test result when a person actually has the predisposition is 0.99. The test is 98% accurate if a person does not have the predisposition. What is the probability that a randomly selected person who tests positive for the predisposition by the test actually has the predisposition?

ANSWER:

Step 1 of 2

Let A be the event that the randomly selected person has predisposition.

B be the event that the selected person is tested positive.

It is believed that 3% of people actually have this predisposition.

Therefore,

The genetic test is 99% accurate if a person actually has the predisposition.

Therefore,

The test is 98% accurate if a person does not have the predisposition.

It implies

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