Solved: One percent of all individuals in a certain

Four universities1, 2, 3, and 4are participating in a holiday basketball tournament. In the first round, 1 will play 2 and 3 will play 4. Then the two winners will play for the championship, and the two losers will also play. One possible outcome can be denoted by 1324 (1 beats 2 and 3 beats 4 in first-round games, and then 1 beats 3 and 2 beats 4). a. List all outcomes in S. b. Let A denote the event that 1 wins the tournament. List outcomes in A. c. Let B denote the event that 2 gets into the championship game. List outcomes in B. d. What are the outcomes in A
B and in A B? What are the outcomes in A ?

Suppose that vehicles taking a particular freeway exit can turn right (R), turn left (L), or go straight (S). Consider observing the direction for each of three successive vehicles. a. List all outcomes in the event A that all three vehicles go in the same direction. b. List all outcomes in the event B that all three vehicles take different directions. c. List all outcomes in the event C that exactly two of the three vehicles turn right. d. List all outcomes in the event D that exactly two vehicles go in the same direction. e. List outcomes in D , C
D, and C D.

Three components are connected to form a system as shown in the accompanying diagram. Because the components in the 23 subsystem are connected in parallel, that subsystem will function if at least one of the two individual components functions. For the entire system to function, component 1 must function and so must the 23 subsystem. The experiment consists of determining the condition of each component [S (success) for a functioning component and F (failure) for a nonfunctioning component]. a. What outcomes are contained in the event A that exactly two out of the three components function? b. What outcomes are contained in the event B that at least two of the components function? c. What outcomes are contained in the event C that the system functions? d. List outcomes in C , A
C, A C, B
C, and B C.

Each of a sample of four home mortgages is classified as fixed rate (F) or variable rate (V). a. What are the 16 outcomes in S ? b. Which outcomes are in the event that exactly three of the selected mortgages are fixed rate? c. Which outcomes are in the event that all four mortgages are of the same type? d. Which outcomes are in the event that at most one of the four is a variable-rate mortgage? e. What is the union of the events in parts (c) and (d), and what is the intersection of these two events? f. What are the union and intersection of the two events in parts (b) and (c)?

A family consisting of three personsA, B, and Cbelongs to a medical clinic that always has a doctor at each of stations 1, 2, and 3. During a certain week, each member of the family visits the clinic once and is assigned at random to a station. The experiment consists of recording the station number for each member. One outcome is (1, 2, 1) for A to station 1, B to station 2, and C to station 1. a. List the 27 outcomes in the sample space. b. List all outcomes in the event that all three members go to the same station. c. List all outcomes in the event that all members go to different stations. d. List all outcomes in the event that no one goes to station 2.

A college library has five copies of a certain text on reserve. Two copies (1 and 2) are first printings, and the other three (3, 4, and 5) are second printings. A student examines these books in random order, stopping only when a second printing has been selected. One possible outcome is 5, and another is 213. a. List the outcomes in S. b. Let A denote the event that exactly one book must be examined. What outcomes are in A? c. Let B be the event that book 5 is the one selected. What outcomes are in B? d. Let C be the event that book 1 is not examined. What outcomes are in C?

An academic department has just completed voting by secret ballot for a department head. The ballot box contains four slips with votes for candidate A and three slips with votes for candidate B. Suppose these slips are removed from the box one by one. a. List all possible outcomes. b. Suppose a running tally is kept as slips are removed. For what outcomes does A remain ahead of B throughout the tally?

An engineering construction firm is currently working on power plants at three different sites. Let Ai denote the event that the plant at site i is completed by the contract date. Use the operations of union, intersection, and complementation to describe each of the following events in terms of A1, A2, and A3, draw a Venn diagram, and shade the region corresponding to each one. a. At least one plant is completed by the contract date. b. All plants are completed by the contract date. c. Only the plant at site 1 is completed by the contract date. d. Exactly one plant is completed by the contract date. e. Either the plant at site 1 or both of the other two plants are completed by the contract date.

Use Venn diagrams to verify the following two relationships for any events A and B (these are called De Morgans laws): a. (A
B)
A B b. (A B)
A
B 1

a. In Example 2.10, identify three events that are mutually exclusive. b. Suppose there is no outcome common to all three of the events A, B, and C. Are these three events necessarily mutually exclusive? If your answer is yes, explain why; if your answer is no, give a counterexample using the experiment of Example 2.10.

A mutual fund company offers its customers several different funds: a money-market fund, three different bond funds (short, intermediate, and long-term), two stock funds (moderate and high-risk), and a balanced fund. Among customers who own shares in just one fund, the percentages of customers in the different funds are as follows: Money-market 20% High-risk stock 18% Short bond 15% Moderate-risk Intermediate stock 25% bond 10% Balanced 7% Long bond 5% A customer who owns shares in just one fund is randomly selected. a. What is the probability that the selected individual owns shares in the balanced fund? b. What is the probability that the individual owns shares in a bond fund? c. What is the probability that the selected individual does not own shares in a stock fund?

Consider randomly selecting a student at a certain university, and let A denote the event that the selected individual has a Visa credit card and B be the analogous event for a MasterCard. Suppose that P(A)
.5, P(B)
.4, and P(A B)
.25. a. Compute the probability that the selected individual has at least one of the two types of cards (i.e., the probability of the event A
B). b. What is the probability that the selected individual has neither type of card? c. Describe, in terms of A and B, the event that the selected student has a Visa card but not a MasterCard, and then calculate the probability of this event.

A computer consulting firm presently has bids out on three projects. Let Ai
{awarded project i}, for i
1, 2, 3, and suppose that P(A1)
.22, P(A2)
.25, P(A3)
.28, P(A1 A2)
.11, P(A1 A3)
.05, P(A2 A3)
.07, P(A1 A2 A3)
.01. Express in words each of the following events, and compute the probability of each event: a. A1
A2 b. A 1 A 2 [Hint: (A1
A2)
A 1 A 2] c. A1
A2
A3 d. A 1 A 2 A 3 e. A 1 A 2 A3 f. (A 1 A 2)
A3 14. A util

particular month. Let A denote the event that a randomly selected household in a certain community does not exceed the lifeline usage during January, and let B be the analogous event for the month of July (A and B refer to the same household). Suppose P(A)
.8, P(B)
.7, and P(A
B)
.9. Compute the following: a. P(A B). b. The probability that the lifeline usage amount is exceeded in exactly one of the two months. Describe this event in terms of A and B.

Consider the type of clothes dryer (gas or electric) purchased by each of five different customers at a certain store. a. If the probability that at most one of these purchases an electric dryer is .428, what is the probability that at least two purchase an electric dryer? b. If P(all five purchase gas)
.116 and P(all five purchase electric)
.005, what is the probability that at least one of each type is purchased?

An individual is presented with three different glasses of cola, labeled C, D, and P. He is asked to taste all three and then list them in order of preference. Suppose the same cola has actually been put into all three glasses. a. What are the simple events in this ranking experiment, and what probability would you assign to each one? b. What is the probability that C is ranked first? c. What is the probability that C is ranked first and D is ranked last?

Let A denote the event that the next request for assistance from a statistical software consultant relates to the SPSS package, and let B be the event that the next request is for help with SAS. Suppose that P(A)
.30 and P(B)
.50. a. Why is it not the case that P(A) P(B)
1? b. Calculate P(A ). c. Calculate P(A
B). d. Calculate P(A B ).

A box contains four 40-W bulbs, five 60-W bulbs, and six 75-W bulbs. If bulbs are selected one by one in random order, what is the probability that at least two bulbs must be selected to obtain one that is rated 75 W?

Human visual inspection of solder joints on printed circuit boards can be very subjective. Part of the problem stems from the numerous types of solder defects (e.g., pad nonwetting, knee visibility, voids) and even the degree to which a joint possesses one or more of these defects. Consequently, even highly trained inspectors can disagree on the disposition of a particular joint. In one batch of 10,000 joints, inspector A found 724 that were judged defective, inspector B found 751 such joints, and 1159 of the joints were judged defective by at least one of the inspectors. Suppose that one of the 10,000 joints is randomly selected. a. What is the probability that the selected joint was judged to be defective by neither of the two inspectors? b. What is the probability that the selected joint was judged to be defective by inspector B but not by inspector A?

A certain factory operates three different shifts. Over the last year, 200 accidents have occurred at the factory. Some of these can be attributed at least in part to unsafe working conditions, whereas the others are unrelated to working conditions. The accompanying table gives the percentage of accidents falling in each type of accidentshift category. Unsafe Unrelated to Conditions Conditions Day 10% 35% Shift Swing 8% 20% Night 5% 22% Suppose one of the 200 accident reports is randomly selected from a file of reports, and the shift and type of accident are determined. a. What are the simple events? b. What is the probability that the selected accident was attributed to unsafe conditions? c. What is the probability that the selected accident did not occur on the day shift?

An insurance company offers four different deductible levelsnone, low, medium, and highfor its homeowners policyholders and three different levelslow, medium, and highfor its automobile policyholders. The accompanying table gives proportions for the various categories of policyholders who have both types of insurance. For example, the proportion of individuals with both low homeowners deductible and low auto deductible is .06 (6% of all such individuals) Homeowners Auto N L M H L .04 .06 .05 .03 M .07 .10 .20 .10 H .02 .03 .15 .15 Suppose an individual having both types of policies is randomly selected. a. What is the probability that the individual has a medium auto deductible and a high homeowners deductible? b. What is the probability that the individual has a low auto deductible? A low homeowners deductible? c. What is the probability that the individual is in the same category for both auto and homeowners deductibles? d. Based on your answer in part (c), what is the probability that the two categories are different? e. What is the probability that the individual has at least one low deductible level? f. Using the answer in part (e), what is the probability that neither deductible level is low?

2.3 Counting Techniques 59 that he must stop at the first signal is .4, the analogous probability for the second signal is .5, and the probability that he must stop at at least one of the two signals is .6. What is the probability that he must stop a. At both signals? b. At the first signal but not at the second one? c. At exactly one signal?

The computers of six faculty members in a certain department are to be replaced. Two of the faculty members have selected laptop machines and the other four have chosen desktop machines. Suppose that only two of the setups can be done on a particular day, and the two computers to be set up are randomly selected from the six (implying 15 equally likely outcomes; if the computers are numbered 1, 2, . . . , 6, then one outcome consists of computers 1 and 2, another consists of computers 1 and 3, and so on). a. What is the probability that both selected setups are for laptop computers? b. What is the probability that both selected setups are desktop machines? c. What is the probability that at least one selected setup is for a desktop computer? d. What is the probability that at least one computer of each type is chosen for setup?

Show that if one event A is contained in another event B (i.e., A is a subset of B), then P(A) P(B). [Hint: For such A and B, A and B A are disjoint and B
A
(B A ), as can be seen from a Venn diagram.] For general A and B, what does this imply about the relationship among P(A B), P(A), and P(A
B)? 2

The three major options on a certain type of new car are an automatic transmission (A), a sunroof (B), and a stereo with compact disc player (C). If 70% of all purchasers request A, 80% request B, 75% request C, 85% request A or B, 90% request A or C, 95% request B or C, and 98% request A or B or C, compute the probabilities of the following events. [Hint: A or B is the event that at least one of the two options is requested; try drawing a Venn diagram and labeling all regions.] a. The next purchaser will request at least one of the three options. b. The next purchaser will select none of the three options. c. The next purchaser will request only an automatic transmission and not either of the other two options. d. The next purchaser will select exactly one of these three options

A certain system can experience three different types of defects. Let Ai (i
1, 2, 3) denote the event that the system has a defect of type i. Suppose that P(A1)
.12 P(A2)
.07 P(A3)
.05 P(A1
A2)
.13 P(A1
A3)
.14 P(A2
A3)
.10 P(A1 A2 A3)
.01 a. What is the probability that the system does not have a type 1 defect? b. What is the probability that the system has both type 1 and type 2 defects? c. What is the probability that the system has both type 1 and type 2 defects but not a type 3 defect? d. What is the probability that the system has at most two of these defects?

An academic department with five faculty members Anderson, Box, Cox, Cramer, and Fishermust select two of its members to serve on a personnel review committee. Because the work will be time-consuming, no one is anxious to serve, so it is decided that the representative will be selected by putting five slips of paper in a box, mixing them, and selecting two. a. What is the probability that both Anderson and Box will be selected? [Hint: List the equally likely outcomes.] b. What is the probability that at least one of the two members whose name begins with C is selected? c. If the five faculty members have taught for 3, 6, 7, 10, and 14 years, respectively, at the university, what is the probability that the two chosen representatives have at least 15 years teaching experience at the university?

In Exercise 5, suppose that any incoming individual is equally likely to be assigned to any of the three stations irrespective of where other individuals have been assigned. What is the probability that a. All three family members are assigned to the same station? b. At most two family members are assigned to the same station? c. Every family member is assigned to a different station?

As of April 2006, roughly 50 million .com web domain names were registered (e.g., yahoo.com). a. How many domain names consisting of just two letters in sequence can be formed? How many domain names of length two are there if digits as well as letters are permitted as characters? [Note: A character length of three or more is now mandated.] b. How many domain names are there consisting of three letters in sequence? How many of this length are there if either letters or digits are permitted? [Note: All are currently taken.] c. Answer the questions posed in (b) for four-character sequences. d. As of April 2006, 97,786 of the four-character sequences using either letters or digits had not yet been claimed. If a four-character name is randomly selected, what is the probability that it is already owned?

A friend of mine is giving a dinner party. His current wine supply includes 8 bottles of zinfandel, 10 of merlot, and 12 of cabernet (he only drinks red wine), all from different wineries. a. If he wants to serve 3 bottles of zinfandel and serving order is important, how many ways are there to do this? b. If 6 bottles of wine are to be randomly selected from the 30 for serving, how many ways are there to do this? c. If 6 bottles are randomly selected, how many ways are there to obtain two bottles of each variety? d. If 6 bottles are randomly selected, what is the probability that this results in two bottles of each variety being chosen? e. If 6 bottles are randomly selected, what is the probability that all of them are the same variety

a. Beethoven wrote 9 symphonies and Mozart wrote 27 piano concertos. If a university radio station announcer wishes to play first a Beethoven symphony and then a Mozart concerto, in how many ways can this be done? b. The station manager decides that on each successive night (7 days per week), a Beethoven symphony will be played, followed by a Mozart piano concerto, followed by a Schubert string quartet (of which there are 15). For roughly how many years could this policy be continued before exactly the same program would have to be repeated?

A stereo store is offering a special price on a complete set of components (receiver, compact disc player, speakers, cassette deck). A purchaser is offered a choice of manufacturer for each component: c. In how many ways can components be selected if none is to be Sony? d. In how many ways can a selection be made if at least one Sony component is to be included? e. If someone flips switches on the selection in a completely random fashion, what is the probability that the system selected contains at least one Sony component? Exactly one Sony component?

Again consider a Little League team that has 15 players on its roster. a. How many ways are there to select 9 players for the starting lineup? b. How many ways are there to select 9 players for the starting lineup and a batting order for the 9 starters? c. Suppose 5 of the 15 players are left-handed. How many ways are there to select 3 left-handed outfielders and have all 6 other positions occupied by right-handed players?

Shortly after being put into service, some buses manufactured by a certain company have developed cracks on the underside of the main frame. Suppose a particular city has 25 of these buses, and cracks have actually appeared in 8 of them. a. How many ways are there to select a sample of 5 buses from the 25 for a thorough inspection? b. In how many ways can a sample of 5 buses contain exactly 4 with visible cracks? c. If a sample of 5 buses is chosen at random, what is the probability that exactly 4 of the 5 will have visible cracks? d. If buses are selected as in part (c), what is the probability that at least 4 of those selected will have visible cracks?

A production facility employs 20 workers on the day shift, 15 workers on the swing shift, and 10 workers on the graveyard shift. A quality control consultant is to select 6 of these workers for in-depth interviews. Suppose the selection is made in such a way that any particular group of 6 workers has the same chance of being selected as does any other group (drawing 6 slips without replacement from among 45). a. How many selections result in all 6 workers coming from the day shift? What is the probability that all 6 selected workers will be from the day shift? b. What is the probability that all 6 selected workers will be from the same shift? c. What is the probability that at least two different shifts will be represented among the selected workers? d. What is the probability that at least one of the shifts will be unrepresented in the sample of workers?

An academic department with five faculty members narrowed its choice for department head to either candidate A or candidate B. Each member then voted on a slip of paper for one of the candidates. Suppose there are actually three votes for A and two for B. If the slips are selected for tallying in random order, what is the probability that A remains ahead of B throughout the vote count (e.g., this event occurs if the selected ordering is AABAB, but not for ABBAA)?

An experimenter is studying the effects of temperature, pressure, and type of catalyst on yield from a certain chemical reaction. Three different temperatures, four different pressures, and five different catalysts are under consideration. a. If any particular experimental run involves the use of a single temperature, pressure, and catalyst, how many experimental runs are possible? b. How many experimental runs are there that involve use of the lowest temperature and two lowest pressures? c. Suppose that five different experimental runs are to be made on the first day of experimentation. If the five are randomly selected from among all the possibilities, so that any group of five has the same probability of selection, what is the probability that a different catalyst is used on each run?

A box in a certain supply room contains four 40-W lightbulbs, five 60-W bulbs, and six 75-W bulbs. Suppose that three bulbs are randomly selected. a. What is the probability that exactly two of the selected bulbs are rated 75 W? b. What is the probability that all three of the selected bulbs have the same rating? c. What is the probability that one bulb of each type is selected? d. Suppose now that bulbs are to be selected one by one until a 75-W bulb is found. What is the probability that it is necessary to examine at least six bulbs?

Fifteen telephones have just been received at an authorized service center. Five of these telephones are cellular, five are cordless, and the other five are corded phones. Suppose that these components are randomly allocated the numbers 1, 2, . . . , 15 to establish the order in which they will be serviced. a. What is the probability that all the cordless phones are among the first ten to be serviced? b. What is the probability that after servicing ten of these phones, phones of only two of the three types remain to be serviced? c. What is the probability that two phones of each type are among the first six serviced?

Three molecules of type A, three of type B, three of type C, and three of type D are to be linked together to form a chain molecule. One such chain molecule is ABCDABCDABCD, and another is BCDDAAABDBCC. a. How many such chain molecules are there? [Hint: If the three As were distinguishable from one anotherA1, A2, A3and the Bs, Cs, and Ds were also, how many molecules would there be? How is this number reduced when the subscripts are removed from the As?] b. Suppose a chain molecule of the type described is randomly selected. What is the probability that all three molecules of each type end up next to one another (such as in BBBAAADDDCCC)?

A mathematics professor wishes to schedule an appointment with each of her eight teaching assistants, four men and four women, to discuss her calculus course. Suppose all possible orderings of appointments are equally likely to be selected. a. What is the probability that at least one female assistant is among the first three with whom the professor meets? b. What is the probability that after the first five appointments she has met with all female assistants? c. Suppose the professor has the same eight assistants the following semester and again schedules appointments without regard to the ordering during the first semester. What is the probability that the orderings of appointments are different?

Three married couples have purchased theater tickets and are seated in a row consisting of just six seats. If they take their seats in a completely random fashion (random order), what is the probability that Jim and Paula (husband and wife) sit in the two seats on the far left? What is the probability that Jim and Paula end up sitting next to one another? What is the probability that at least one of the wives ends up sitting next to her husband?

In five-card poker, a straight consists of five cards with adjacent denominations (e.g., 9 of clubs, 10 of hearts, jack of hearts, queen of spades, and king of clubs). Assuming that aces can be high or low, if you are dealt a five-card hand, what is the probability that it will be a straight with high card 10? What is the probability that it will be a straight? What is the probability that it will be a straight flush (all cards in the same suit)?

Show that ( n k)
(n n k). Give an interpretation involving subsets.

The population of a particular country consists of three ethnic groups. Each individual belongs to one of the four major blood groups. The accompanying joint probability table gives the proportions of individuals in the various ethnic groupblood group combinations. The population of a particular country consists of three ethnic groups. Each individual belongs to one of the four major blood groups. The accompanying joint probability table gives the proportions of individuals in the various ethnic groupblood group combinations. Suppose that an individual is randomly selected from the population, and define events by A
{type A selected}, B
{type B selected}, and C
{ethnic group 3 selected}. a. Calculate P(A), P(C), and P(A C). b. Calculate both P(AC) and P(CA), and explain in context what each of these probabilities represents. c. If the selected individual does not have type B blood, what is the probability that he or she is from ethnic group 1?

Suppose an individual is randomly selected from the population of all adult males living in the United States. Let A be the event that the selected individual is over 6 ft in height, and let B be the event that the selected individual is a professional basketball player. Which do you think is larger, P(AB) or P(BA)? Why?

Return to the credit card scenario of Exercise 12 (Section 2.2), where A
{Visa}, B
{MasterCard}, P(A)
.5, P(B)
.4, and P(A B)
.25. Calculate and interpret each of the following probabilities (a Venn diagram might help). a. P(BA) b. P(B A) c. P(AB) d. P(A B) e. Given that the selected individual has at least one card, what is the probability that he or she has a Visa card?

Reconsider the system defect situation described in Exercise 26 (Section 2.2). a. Given that the system has a type 1 defect, what is the probability that it has a type 2 defect? b. Given that the system has a type 1 defect, what is the probability that it has all three types of defects? c. Given that the system has at least one type of defect, what is the probability that it has exactly one type of defect? d. Given that the system has both of the first two types of defects, what is the probability that it does not have the third type of defect?

If two bulbs are randomly selected from the box of lightbulbs described in Exercise 38 (Section 2.3) and at least one of them is found to be rated 75 W, what is the probability that both of them are 75-W bulbs? Given that at least one of the two selected is not rated 75 W, what is the probability that both selected bulbs have the same rating?

A department store sells sport shirts in three sizes (small, medium, and large), three patterns (plaid, print, and stripe), and two sleeve lengths (long and short). The accompanying tables give the proportions of shirts sold in the various category combinations. Short-sleeved Pattern Size Pl Pr St S .04 .02 .05 M .08 .07 .12 L .03 .07 .08 Long-sleeved Pattern Size Pl Pr St S .03 .02 .03 M .10 .05 .07 L .04 .02 .08 a. What is the probability that the next shirt sold is a medium, long-sleeved, print shirt? b. What is the probability that the next shirt sold is a medium print shirt? c. What is the probability that the next shirt sold is a shortsleeved shirt? A long-sleeved shirt? d. What is the probability that the size of the next shirt sold is medium? That the pattern of the next shirt sold is a print? e. Given that the shirt just sold was a short-sleeved plaid, what is the probability that its size was medium? f. Given that the shirt just sold was a medium plaid, what is the probability that it was short-sleeved? Long-sleeved?

One box contains six red balls and four green balls, and a second box contains seven red balls and three green balls. A ball is randomly chosen from the first box and placed in the second box. Then a ball is randomly selected from the second box and placed in the first box. a. What is the probability that a red ball is selected from the first box and a red ball is selected from the second box? b. At the conclusion of the selection process, what is the probability that the numbers of red and green balls in the first box are identical to the numbers at the beginning?

A system consists of two identical pumps, #1 and #2. If one pump fails, the system will still operate. However, because of the added strain, the extra remaining pump is now more likely to fail than was originally the case. That is, r
P(#2 fails #1 fails) P(#2 fails)
q. If at least one pump fails by the end of the pump design life in 7% of all systems and both pumps fail during that period in only 1%, what is the probability that pump #1 will fail during the pump design life?

A certain shop repairs both audio and video components. Let A denote the event that the next component brought in for repair is an audio component, and let B be the event that the next component is a compact disc player (so the event B is contained in A). Suppose that P(A)
.6 and P(B)
.05. What is P(BA)?

In Exercise 13, Ai
{awarded project i}, for i
1, 2, 3. Use the probabilities given there to compute the following probabilities, and explain in words the meaning of each one. a. P(A2A1) b. P(A2 A3A1) c. P(A2
A3A1) d. P(A1 A2 A3A1
A2
A3). 5

Deer ticks can be carriers of either Lyme disease or human granulocytic ehrlichiosis (HGE). Based on a recent study, suppose that 16% of all ticks in a certain location carry Lyme disease, 10% carry HGE, and 10% of the ticks that carry at least one of these diseases in fact carry both of them. If a randomly selected tick is found to have carried HGE, what is the probability that the selected tick is also a carrier of Lyme disease?

For any events A and B with P(B) 0, show that P(AB) P(A B)
1.

If P(BA) P(B), show that P(B A) P(B ). [Hint: Add P(B A) to both sides of the given inequality and then use the result of Exercise 56.]

Show that for any three events A, B, and C with P(C) 0, P(A
BC)
P(AC) P(BC) P(A BC). 5

At a certain gas station, 40% of the customers use regular gas (A1), 35% use plus gas (A2), and 25% use premium (A3). Of those customers using regular gas, only 30% fill their tanks (event B). Of those customers using plus, 60% fill their tanks, whereas of those using premium, 50% fill their tanks. a. What is the probability that the next customer will request plus gas and fill the tank (A2 B)? b. What is the probability that the next customer fills the tank? c. If the next customer fills the tank, what is the probability that regular gas is requested? Plus? Premium?

Seventy percent of the light aircraft that disappear while in flight in a certain country are subsequently discovered. Of the aircraft that are discovered, 60% have an emergency locator, whereas 90% of the aircraft not discovered do not have such a locator. Suppose a light aircraft has disappeared. a. If it has an emergency locator, what is the probability that it will not be discovered? b. If it does not have an emergency locator, what is the probability that it will be discovered?

Components of a certain type are shipped to a supplier in batches of ten. Suppose that 50% of all such batches contain no defective components, 30% contain one defective component, and 20% contain two defective components. Two components from a batch are randomly selected and tested. What are the probabilities associated with 0, 1, and 2 defective components being in the batch under each of the following conditions? a. Neither tested component is defective. b. One of the two tested components is defective. [Hint: Draw a tree diagram with three first-generation branches for the three different types of batches.]

A company that manufactures video cameras produces a basic model and a deluxe model. Over the past year, 40% of the cameras sold have been of the basic model. Of those buying the basic model, 30% purchase an extended warranty, whereas 50% of all deluxe purchasers do so. If you learn that a randomly selected purchaser has an extended warranty, how likely is it that he or she has a basic model?

For customers purchasing a refrigerator at a certain appliance store, let A be the event that the refrigerator was manufactured in the U.S., B be the event that the refrigerator had an icemaker, and C be the event that the customer purchased an extended warranty. Relevant probabilities are. P(A)
.75 P(BA)
.9 P(BA )
.8 P(CA B)
.8 P(CA B )
.6 P(CA B)
.7 P(CA B )
.3 a. Construct a tree diagram consisting of first-, second-, and third-generation branches and place an event label and appropriate probability next to each branch. b. Compute P(A B C). c. Compute P(B C). d. Compute P(C). e. Compute P(AB C), the probability of a U.S. purchase given that an icemaker and extended warranty are also purchased. 64. In

Consider the following information about travelers on vacation (based partly on a recent Travelocity poll): 40% check work email, 30% use a cell phone to stay connected to work, 25% bring a laptop with them, 23% both check work e-mail and use a cell phone to stay connected, and 51% neither check work email nor use a cell phone to stay connected nor bring a laptop. In addition, 88 out of every 100 who bring a laptop also check work email, and 70 out of every 100 who use a cell phone to stay connected also bring a laptop. a. What is the probability that a randomly selected traveler who checks work email also uses a cell phone to stay connected? b. What is the probability that someone who brings a laptop on vacation also uses a cell phone to stay connected? c. If the randomly selected traveler checked work email and brought a laptop, what is the probability that he/she uses a cell phone to stay connected?

At a large university, in the never-ending quest for a satisfactory textbook, the Statistics Department has tried a different text during each of the last three quarters. During the fall quarter, 500 students used the text by Professor Mean; during the winter quarter, 300 students used the text by Professor Median; and during the spring quarter, 200 students used the text by Professor Mode. A survey at the end of each quarter showed that 200 students were satisfied with Means book, 150 were satisfied with Medians book, and 160 were satisfied with Modes book. If a student who took statistics during one of these quarters is selected at random and admits to having been satisfied with the text, is the student most likely to have used the book by Mean, Median, or Mode? Who is the least likely author? [Hint: Draw a tree diagram or use Bayes theorem.]

Consider the following information about travelers on vacation (based partly on a recent Travelocity poll): 40% check work email, 30% use a cell phone to stay connected to work, 25% bring a laptop with them, 23% both check work e-mail and use a cell phone to stay connected, and 51% neither check work email nor use a cell phone to stay connected nor bring a laptop. In addition, 88 out of every 100 who bring a laptop also check work email, and 70 out of every 100 who use a cell phone to stay connected also bring a laptop. a. What is the probability that a randomly selected traveler who checks work email also uses a cell phone to stay connected? b. What is the probability that someone who brings a laptop on vacation also uses a cell phone to stay connected? c. If the randomly selected traveler checked work email and brought a laptop, what is the probability that he/she uses a cell phone to stay connected?

There has been a great deal of controversy over the last several years regarding what types of surveillance are appropriate to prevent terrorism. Suppose a particular surveillance system has a 99% chance of correctly identifying a future terrorist and a 99.9% chance of correctly identifying someone who is not a future terrorist. If there are 1000 future terrorists in a population of 300 million, and one of these 300 million is randomly selected, scrutinized by the system, and identified as a future terrorist, what is the probability that he/she actually is a future terrorist? Does the value of this probability make you uneasy about using the surveillance system? Explain

A friend who lives in Los Angeles makes frequent consulting trips to Washington, D.C.; 50% of the time she travels on airline #1, 30% of the time on airline #2, and the remaining 20% of the time on airline #3. For airline #1, flights are late into D.C. 30% of the time and late into L.A. 10% of the time. For airline #2, these percentages are 25% and 20%, whereas for airline #3 the percentages are 40% and 25%. If we learn that on a particular trip she arrived late at exactly one of the two destinations, what are the posterior probabilities of having flown on airlines #1, #2, and #3? Assume that the chance of a late arrival in L.A. is unaffected by what happens on the flight to D.C. [Hint: From the tip of each first-generation branch on a tree diagram, draw three second-generation branches labeled, respectively, 0 late, 1 late, and 2 late.]

In Exercise 59, consider the following additional information on credit card usage: 70% of all regular fill-up customers use a credit card. 50% of all regular non-fill-up customers use a credit card. 60% of all plus fill-up customers use a credit card. 50% of all plus non-fill-up customers use a credit card. 50% of all premium fill-up customers use a credit card. 40% of all premium non-fill-up customers use a credit card. Compute the probability of each of the following events for the next customer to arrive (a tree diagram might help). a. {plus and fill-up and credit card} b. {premium and non-fill-up and credit card} c. {premium and credit card} d. {fill-up and credit card} e. {credit card} f. If the next customer uses a credit card, what is the probability that premium was requested?

Reconsider the credit card scenario of Exercise 47 (Section 2.4), and show that A and B are dependent first by using the definition of independence and then by verifying that the multiplication property does not hold.

An oil exploration company currently has two active projects, one in Asia and the other in Europe. Let A be the event that the Asian project is successful and B be the event that the European project is successful. Suppose that A and B are independent events with P(A)
.4 and P(B)
.7. a. If the Asian project is not successful, what is the probability that the European project is also not successful? Explain your reasoning. b. What is the probability that at least one of the two projects will be successful? c. Given that at least one of the two projects is successful, what is the probability that only the Asian project is successful?

In Exercise 13, is any Ai independent of any other Aj ? Answer using the multiplication property for independent events.

If A and B are independent events, show that A and B are also independent. [Hint: First establish a relationship between P(A B), P(B), and P(A B).]

Suppose that the proportions of blood phenotypes in a particular population are as follows: A B AB O .42 .10 .04 .44 Assuming that the phenotypes of two randomly selected individuals are independent of one another, what is the probability that both phenotypes are O? What is the probability that the phenotypes of two randomly selected individuals match?

One of the assumptions underlying the theory of control charting (see Chapter 16) is that successive plotted points are independent of one another. Each plotted point can signal either that a manufacturing process is operating correctly or that there is some sort of malfunction. Even when a process is running correctly, there is a small probability that a particular point will signal a problem with the process. Suppose that this probability is .05. What is the probability that at least one of 10 successive points indicates a problem when in fact the process is operating correctly? Answer this question for 25 successive points.

The probability that a grader will make a marking error on any particular question of a multiple-choice exam is .1. If there are ten questions and questions are marked independently, what is the probability that no errors are made? That at least one error is made? If there are n questions and the probability of a marking error is p rather than .1, give expressions for these two probabilities.

An aircraft seam requires 25 rivets. The seam will have to be reworked if any of these rivets is defective. Suppose rivets are defective independently of one another, each with the same probability. a. If 20% of all seams need reworking, what is the probability that a rivet is defective? b. How small should the probability of a defective rivet be to ensure that only 10% of all seams need reworking?

A boiler has five identical relief valves. The probability that any particular valve will open on demand is .95. Assuming independent operation of the valves, calculate P(at least one valve opens) and P(at least one valve fails to open).

Two pumps connected in parallel fail independently of one another on any given day. The probability that only the older pump will fail is .10, and the probability that only the newer pump will fail is .05. What is the probability that the pumping system will fail on any given day (which happens if both pumps fail)?

Consider the system of components connected as in the accompanying picture. Components 1 and 2 are connected in parallel, so that subsystem works iff either 1 or 2 works; since 3 and 4 are connected in series, that subsystem works iff both 3 and 4 work. If components work independently of one another and P(component works)
.9, calculate P(system works).

. Refer back to the series-parallel system configuration introduced in Example 2.35, and suppose that there are only two cells rather than three in each parallel subsystem [in Figure 2.14(a), eliminate cells 3 and 6, and renumber cells 4 and 5 as 3 and 4]. Using P(Ai )
.9, the probability that system lifetime exceeds t0 is easily seen to be .9639. To what value would .9 have to be changed in order to increase the system lifetime reliability from .9639 to .99? [Hint: Let P(Ai )
p, express system reliability in terms of p, and then let x
p2 .]

Consider independently rolling two fair dice, one red and the other green. Let A be the event that the red die shows 3 dots, B be the event that the green die shows 4 dots, and C be the event that the total number of dots showing on the two dice is 7. Are these events pairwise independent (i.e., are A and B independent events, are A and C independent, and are B and C independent)? Are the three events mutually independent?

Components arriving at a distributor are checked for defects by two different inspectors (each component is checked by both inspectors). The first inspector detects 90% of all defectives that are present, and the second inspector does likewise. At least one inspector does not detect a defect on 20% of all defective components. What is the probability that the following occur? a. A defective component will be detected only by the first inspector? By exactly one of the two inspectors? b. All three defective components in a batch escape detection by both inspectors (assuming inspections of different components are independent of one another)?

Seventy percent of all vehicles examined at a certain emissions inspection station pass the inspection. Assuming that successive vehicles pass or fail independently of one another, calculate the following probabilities: a. P(all of the next three vehicles inspected pass) b. P(at least one of the next three inspected fails) c. P(exactly one of the next three inspected passes) d. P(at most one of the next three vehicles inspected passes) e. Given that at least one of the next three vehicles passes inspection, what is the probability that all three pass (a conditional probability)?

A quality control inspector is inspecting newly produced items for faults. The inspector searches an item for faults in a series of independent fixations, each of a fixed duration. Given that a flaw is actually present, let p denote the probability that the flaw is detected during any one fixation (this model is discussed in Human Performance in Sampling Inspection, Human Factors, 1979: 99105). a. Assuming that an item has a flaw, what is the probability that it is detected by the end of the second fixation (once a flaw has been detected, the sequence of fixations terminates)? b. Give an expression for the probability that a flaw will be detected by the end of the nth fixation. c. If when a flaw has not been detected in three fixations, the item is passed, what is the probability that a flawed item will pass inspection? d. Suppose 10% of all items contain a flaw [P(randomly chosen item is flawed)
.1]. With the assumption of part (c), what is the probability that a randomly chosen item will pass inspection (it will automatically pass if it is not flawed, but could also pass if it is flawed)? e. Given that an item has passed inspection (no flaws in three fixations), what is the probability that it is actually flawed? Calculate for p
.5.

a. A lumber company has just taken delivery on a lot of 10,000 2 4 boards. Suppose that 20% of these boards (2,000) are actually too green to be used in first-quality construction. Two boards are selected at random, one after the other. Let A
{the first board is green} and B
{the second board is green}. Compute P(A), P(B), and P(A B) (a tree diagram might help). Are A and B independent? b. With A and B independent and P(A)
P(B)
.2, what is P(A B)? How much difference is there between this answer and P(A B) in part (a)? For purposes of calculating P(A B), can we assume that A and B of part (a) are independent to obtain essentially the correct probability? c. Suppose the lot consists of ten boards, of which two are green. Does the assumption of independence now yield approximately the correct answer for P(A B)? What is the critical difference between the situation here and that of part (a)? When do you think that an independence assumption would be valid in obtaining an approximately correct answer to P(A B)? 87.

Refer to the assumptions stated in Exercise 80 and answer the question posed there for the system in the accompanying picture. How would the probability change if this were a subsystem connected in parallel to the subsystem pictured in Figure 2.14(a)?

Professor Stan der Deviation can take one of two routes on his way home from work. On the first route, there are four railroad crossings. The probability that he will be stopped by a train at any particular one of the crossings is .1, and trains operate independently at the four crossings. The other route is longer but there are only two crossings, independent of one another, with the same stoppage probability for each as on the first route. On a particular day, Professor Deviation has a meeting scheduled at home for a certain time. Whichever route he takes, he calculates that he will be late if he is stopped by trains at at least half the crossings encountered. a. Which route should he take to minimize the probability of being late to the meeting? b. If he tosses a fair coin to decide on a route and he is late, what is the probability that he took the four-crossing route?

Suppose identical tags are placed on both the left ear and the right ear of a fox. The fox is then let loose for a period of time. Consider the two events C1
{left ear tag is lost} and C2
{right ear tag is lost}. Let 
P(C1)
P(C2), and assume C1 and C2 are independent events. Derive an expression (involving ) for the probability that exactly one tag is lost given that at most one is lost (Ear Tag Loss in Red Foxes, J. Wildlife Mgmt., 1976: 164167). [Hint: Draw a tree diagram in which the two initial branches refer to whether the left ear tag was lost.]

A small manufacturing company will start operating a night shift. There are 20 machinists employed by the company. a. If a night crew consists of 3 machinists, how many different crews are possible? b. If the machinists are ranked 1, 2, . . . , 20 in order of competence, how many of these crews would not have the best machinist? c. How many of the crews would have at least 1 of the 10 best machinists? d. If one of these crews is selected at random to work on a particular night, what is the probability that the best machinist will not work that night?

A factory uses three production lines to manufacture cans of a certain type. The accompanying table gives percentages of nonconforming cans, categorized by type of nonconformance, for each of the three lines during a particular time period. Line 1 Line 2 Line 3 Blemish 15 12 20 Crack 50 44 40 Pull-Tab Problem 21 28 24 Surface Defect 10 8 15 Other 4 82 During this period, line 1 produced 500 nonconforming cans, line 2 produced 400 such cans, and line 3 was responsible for 600 nonconforming cans. Suppose that one of these 1500 cans is randomly selected. a. What is the probability that the can was produced by line 1? That the reason for nonconformance is a crack? b. If the selected can came from line 1, what is the probability that it had a blemish? c. Given that the selected can had a surface defect, what is the probability that it came from line 1?

An employee of the records office at a certain university currently has ten forms on his desk awaiting processing. Six of these are withdrawal petitions and the other four are course substitution requests. a. If he randomly selects six of these forms to give to a subordinate, what is the probability that only one of the two types of forms remains on his desk? b. Suppose he has time to process only four of these forms before leaving for the day. If these four are randomly selected one by one, what is the probability that each succeeding form is of a different type from its predecessor?

One satellite is scheduled to be launched from Cape Canaveral in Florida, and another launching is scheduled for Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. Let A denote the event that the Vandenberg launch goes off on schedule, and let B represent the event that the Cape Canaveral launch goes off on schedule. If A and B are independent events with P(A) P(B) and P(A
B)
.626, P(A B)
.144, determine the values of P(A) and P(B).

A transmitter is sending a message by using a binary code, namely, a sequence of 0s and 1s. Each transmitted bit (0 or 1) must pass through three relays to reach the receiver. At each relay, the probability is .20 that the bit sent will be different from the bit received (a reversal). Assume that the relays operate independently of one another. Transmitter 0 Relay 1 0 Relay 2 0 Relay 3 0 Receiver a. If a 1 is sent from the transmitter, what is the probability that a 1 is sent by all three relays? b. If a 1 is sent from the transmitter, what is the probability that a 1 is received by the receiver? [Hint: The eight experimental outcomes can be displayed on a tree diagram with three generations of branches, one generation for each relay.] c. Suppose 70% of all bits sent from the transmitter are 1s. If a 1 is received by the receiver, what is the probability that a 1 was sent?

the rumor to the chosen individual. That individual then selects at random one of the four remaining individuals and repeats the rumor. Continuing, a new individual is selected from those not already having heard the rumor by the individual who has just heard it, until everyone has been told. a. What is the probability that the rumor is repeated in the order B, C, D, E, and F? b. What is the probability that F is the third person at the party to be told the rumor? c. What is the probability that F is the last person to hear the rumor?

Refer to Exercise 95. If at each stage the person who currently has the rumor does not know who has already heard it and selects the next recipient at random from all five possible individuals, what is the probability that F has still not heard the rumor after it has been told ten times at the party?

A chemical engineer is interested in determining whether a certain trace impurity is present in a product. An experiment has a probability of .80 of detecting the impurity if it is present. The probability of not detecting the impurity if it is absent is .90. The prior probabilities of the impurity being present and being absent are .40 and .60, respectively. Three separate experiments result in only two detections. What is the posterior probability that the impurity is present?

Each contestant on a quiz show is asked to specify one of six possible categories from which questions will be asked. Suppose P(contestant requests category i)
 1 6 and successive contestants choose their categories independently of one another. If there are three contestants on each show and all three contestants on a particular show select different categories, what is the probability that exactly one has selected category 1?

Fasteners used in aircraft manufacturing are slightly crimped so that they lock enough to avoid loosening during vibration. Suppose that 95% of all fasteners pass an initial inspection. Of the 5% that fail, 20% are so seriously defective that they must be scrapped. The remaining fasteners are sent to a recrimping operation, where 40% cannot be salvaged and are discarded. The other 60% of these fasteners are corrected by the recrimping process and subsequently pass inspection. a. What is the probability that a randomly selected incoming fastener will pass inspection either initially or after recrimping? b. Given that a fastener passed inspection, what is the probability that it passed the initial inspection and did not need recrimping?

One percent of all individuals in a certain population are carriers of a particular disease. A diagnostic test for this disease has a 90% detection rate for carriers and a 5% detection rate for noncarriers. Suppose the test is applied independently to two different blood samples from the same randomly selected individual. a. What is the probability that both tests yield the same result? b. If both tests are positive, what is the probability that the selected individual is a carrier?

A system consists of two components. The probability that the second component functions in a satisfactory manner during its design life is .9, the probability that at least one of the two components does so is .96, and the probability that both components do so is .75. Given that the first component functions in a satisfactory manner throughout its design life, what is the probability that the second one does also?

A certain company sends 40% of its overnight mail parcels via express mail service E1. Of these parcels, 2% arrive after the guaranteed delivery time (denote the event late delivery by L). If a record of an overnight mailing is randomly selected from the companys file, what is the probability that the parcel went via E1 and was late?

Refer to Exercise 102. Suppose that 50% of the overnight parcels are sent via express mail service E2 and the remaining 10% are sent via E3. Of those sent via E2, only 1% arrive late, whereas 5% of the parcels handled by E3 arrive late. a. What is the probability that a randomly selected parcel arrived late? b. If a randomly selected parcel has arrived on time, what is the probability that it was not sent via E1?

A company uses three different assembly linesA1, A2, and A3to manufacture a particular component. Of those manufactured by line A1, 5% need rework to remedy a defect, whereas 8% of A2s components need rework and 10% of A3s need rework. Suppose that 50% of all components are produced by line A1, 30% are produced by line A2, and 20% come from line A3. If a randomly selected component needs rework, what is the probability that it came from line A1? From line A2? From line A3?

Disregarding the possibility of a February 29 birthday, suppose a randomly selected individual is equally likely to have been born on any one of the other 365 days. a. If ten people are randomly selected, what is the probability that all have different birthdays? That at least two have the same birthday? b. With k replacing ten in part (a), what is the smallest k for which there is at least a 5050 chance that two or more people will have the same birthday? c. If ten people are randomly selected, what is the probability that either at least two have the same birthday or at least two have the same last three digits of their Social Security numbers? [Note: The article Methods for Studying Coincidences (F. Mosteller and P. Diaconis, J. Amer. Stat. Assoc., 1989: 853861) discusses problems of this type.]

One method used to distinguish between granitic (G) and basaltic (B) rocks is to examine a portion of the infrared spectrum of the suns energy reflected from the rock surface. Let R1, R2, and R3 denote measured spectrum intensities at three different wavelengths; typically, for granite R1  R2 R3, whereas for basalt R3 R1 R2. When measurements are made remotely (using aircraft), various orderings of the Ris may arise whether the rock is basalt or granite. Flights over regions of known composition have yielded the following information: Granite Basalt R1 R2 R3 60% 10% R1 R3 R2 25% 20% R3 R1 R2 15% 70% Suppose that for a randomly selected rock in a certain region, P(granite)
.25 and P(basalt)
.75. a. Show that P(graniteR1 R2 R3) P(basaltR1  R2 R3). If measurements yielded R1 R2 R3, would you classify the rock as granite or basalt? b. If measurements yielded R1 R3 R2, how would you classify the rock? Answer the same question for R3  R1 R2. c. Using the classification rules indicated in parts (a) and (b), when selecting a rock from this region, what is the probability of an erroneous classification? [Hint: Either G could be classified as B or B as G, and P(B) and P(G) are known.] d. If P(granite)
p rather than .25, are there values of p (other than 1) for which one would always classify a rock as granite?

A subject is allowed a sequence of glimpses to detect a target. Let Gi
{the target is detected on the ith glimpse}, with pi
P(Gi ). Suppose the Gis are independent events and write an expression for the probability that the target has been detected by the end of the nth glimpse. [Note: This model is discussed in Predicting Aircraft Detectability, Human Factors, 1979: 277291.]

In a Little League baseball game, team As pitcher throws a strike 50% of the time and a ball 50% of the time, successive pitches are independent of one another, and the pitcher never hits a batter. Knowing this, team Bs manager has instructed the first batter not to swing at anything. Calculate the probability that a. The batter walks on the fourth pitch b. The batter walks on the sixth pitch (so two of the first five must be strikes), using a counting argument or constructing a tree diagram c. The batter walks d. The first batter up scores while no one is out (assuming that each batter pursues a no-swing strategy)

Four engineers, A, B, C, and D, have been scheduled for job interviews at 10 A.M. on Friday, January 13, at Random Sampling, Inc. The personnel manager has scheduled the four for interview rooms 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. However, the managers secretary does not know this, so assigns them to the four rooms in a completely random fashion (what else!). What is the probability that a. All four end up in the correct rooms? b. None of the four ends up in the correct room?

A particular airline has 10 A.M. flights from Chicago to New York, Atlanta, and Los Angeles. Let A denote the event that the New York flight is full and define events B and C analogously for the other two flights. Suppose P(A)
.6, P(B)
.5, P(C)
.4 and the three events are independent. What is the probability that a. All three flights are full? That at least one flight is not full? b. Only the New York flight is full? That exactly one of the three flights is full?

A personnel manager is to interview four candidates for a job. These are ranked 1, 2, 3, and 4 in order of preference and will be interviewed in random order. However, at the conclusion of each interview, the manager will know only how the current candidate compares to those previously interviewed. For example, the interview order 3, 4, 1, 2 generates no information after the first interview, shows that the second candidate is worse than the first, and that the third is better than the first two. However, the order 3, 4, 2, 1 would generate the same information after each of the first three interviews. The manager wants to hire the best candidate but must make an irrevocable hire/no hire decision after each interview. Consider the following strategy: Automatically reject the first s candidates and then hire the first subsequent candidate who is best among those already interviewed (if no such candidate appears, the last one interviewed is hired). For example, with s
2, the order 3, 4, 1, 2 would result in the best being hired, whereas the order 3, 1, 2, 4 would not. Of the four possible s values (0, 1, 2, and 3), which one maximizes P(best is hired)? [Hint: Write out the 24 equally likely interview orderings: s
0 means that the first candidate is automatically hired.]

Consider four independent events A1, A2, A3, and A4 and let pi
P(Ai ) for i
1, 2, 3, 4. Express the probability that at least one of these four events occurs in terms of the pis, and do the same for the probability that at least two of the events occur.

A box contains the following four slips of paper, each having exactly the same dimensions: (1) win prize 1; (2) win prize 2; (3) win prize 3; (4) win prizes 1, 2, and 3. One slip will be randomly selected. Let A1
{win prize 1}, A2
{win prize 2}, and A3
{win prize 3}. Show that A1 and A2 are independent, that A1 and A3 are independent, and that A2 and A3 are also independent (this is pairwise independence). However, show that P(A1 A2 A3) P(A1) P(A2) P(A3), so the three events are not mutually independent.

A box contains the following four slips of paper, each having exactly the same dimensions: (1) win prize 1; (2) win prize 2; (3) win prize 3; (4) win prizes 1, 2, and 3. One slip will be randomly selected. Let A1
{win prize 1}, A2
{win prize 2}, and A3
{win prize 3}. Show that A1 and A2 are independent, that A1 and A3 are independent, and that A2 and A3 are also independent (this is pairwise independence). However, show that P(A1 A2 A3) P(A1) P(A2) P(A3), so the three events are not mutually independent.