A test indicates the presence of a particular disease 90% of the time when the disease

Chapter 1, Problem 1.5-12

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QUESTION:

A test indicates the presence of a particular disease 90% of the time when the disease is present and the presence of the disease 2% of the time when the disease is not present. If 0.5% of the population has the disease, calculate the conditional probability that a person selected at random has the disease if the test indicates the presence of the disease.

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QUESTION:

A test indicates the presence of a particular disease 90% of the time when the disease is present and the presence of the disease 2% of the time when the disease is not present. If 0.5% of the population has the disease, calculate the conditional probability that a person selected at random has the disease if the test indicates the presence of the disease.

ANSWER:

Step 1 of 3

Bayes' theorem

Complement rule:

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